Woking Vs Dag And Red

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Woking and Dag and Red for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.21 3.58 2.15 1.7 2.18
Estim 2.62 3.75 2.85 2.06 1.95
Value % 7.02 -1.27 -11.42 -10.28 5.41



Basic Data and latest results


Woking basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 5 5 5 1
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 3 3 0
At Home 1 0 1 50 2 2 2 0




Woking latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Notts County A 4 1 W O Gg
28 Sep Chesterfield H 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Eastleigh A 2 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Wrexham A 0 1 L U Ng
30 Aug Torquay A 4 0 W O Ng
28 Aug Halifax H 2 3 L O Gg
21 Aug Wealdstone A 2 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Dag and Red basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 6 5 1
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 2 1
At Away 3 0 1 75 3 3 2 2




Dag and Red latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Altrincham H 2 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Solihull H 5 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Wrexham A 0 1 L U Ng
14 Sep Weymouth H 4 2 W O Gg
11 Sep King’s Lynn A 2 1 W O Gg
04 Sep Wealdstone H 2 2 D O Gg
30 Aug Barnet A 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Bromley H 4 2 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Woking is 0.243 and for the Dag and Red is 0.477.
  • The home dynamic for the Woking is -0.095 and the dynamic as a guest for the Dag and Red is 1.
  • The offensive ability for the Woking is 0.54 and for the Dag and Red is 0.06.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Woking is -0.467 and for the Dag and Red is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Woking 29% 31% 23% 17%
Dag and Red 29% 35% 23% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Woking to score 1.2 goals and Dag and Red to score 1.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.8 goals in the game and the guest team Dag and Red to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Woking to score 1.28 goals and Dag and Red to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.05 0-1 3.68
1 5.29 2-3 2.08
2 4.15 4+ 4.07
3 4.18 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 6.49 Un 1.5 3.68
5 14.29 Ov 2.5 2.06
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 1.95
Gg 1.97 Ov 3.5 4.07
NoG 2.04 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.09 3.28 2.69
2-3 goals 2.45 4.44 2.73
4+ goals 2.56 3.24 3.32
Ov 1.5 2.49 3.95 2.9
Un 1.5 3.09 3.28 2.69
Ov 2.5 2.16 6.38 2.64
Un 2.5 3.31 2.69 3.07
Ov 3.5 2.56 3.24 3.32
Un 3.5 2.65 3.94 2.71
Goal-Goal 2.85 2.76 3.5
No Goal 2.43 5.92 2.38
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.24 5.25 2.75
NG+Un 2.5 2.61 5.92 2.43



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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