Wrexham Vs Chesterfield

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Wrexham and Chesterfield for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.94 3.34 3.96 2 1.82
Estim 2.63 3.66 2.88 2 2
Value % -13.52 -2.62 9.47 0 -4.95



Basic Data and latest results


Wrexham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 4 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 2 2 1
At Home 2 1 0 78 3 1 0 3




Wrexham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Stockport A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Dag and Red H 1 0 W U Ng
14 Sep Grimsby A 1 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Woking H 1 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Southend A 2 2 D O Gg
30 Aug Notts County H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Eastleigh A 2 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Solihull A 2 2 D O Gg



Chesterfield basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 2 1
At Away 3 1 1 67 4 1 1 4




Chesterfield latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Woking A 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Torquay H 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Yeovil A 2 0 W U Ng
14 Sep Barnet H 4 2 W O Gg
11 Sep Dover Athletic A 0 0 D U Ng
04 Sep Bromley H 2 2 D O Gg
30 Aug King’s Lynn A 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Wealdstone H 2 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Wrexham is 0.112 and for the Chesterfield is 0.488.
  • The home dynamic for the Wrexham is 0.648 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chesterfield is 0.482.
  • The offensive ability for the Wrexham is 1 and for the Chesterfield is 0.2.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Wrexham is 0.24 and for the Chesterfield is 0.74.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Wrexham 23% 38% 23% 15%
Chesterfield 28% 35% 23% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.52 goals and Chesterfield to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.3 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.62 0-1 4
1 5.38 2-3 2.02
2 4 4+ 3.94
3 4.08 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 6.13 Un 1.5 4
5 14.49 Ov 2.5 2
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 2
Gg 1.8 Ov 3.5 3.94
NoG 2.26 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.36 3.91 3.12
2-3 goals 2.68 3.72 2.8
4+ goals 2.85 3.34 2.85
Ov 1.5 2.73 3.58 2.82
Un 1.5 2.36 3.91 3.12
Ov 2.5 2.36 6.57 2.35
Un 2.5 2.96 2.54 3.73
Ov 3.5 2.85 3.34 2.85
Un 3.5 2.56 3.78 2.9
Goal-Goal 3.3 2.67 3.11
No Goal 2.09 6.91 2.65
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.51 5.58 2.37
NG+Un 2.5 2.17 6.91 2.74



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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