Yeovil Vs Maidenhead

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Yeovil and Maidenhead for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.86 3.67 3.8 1.8 2
Estim 2.18 3.86 3.52 1.99 2.01
Value % -7.89 -1.34 2.09 -5.3 -0.25



Basic Data and latest results


Yeovil basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 5 4 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 2 1
At Home 1 0 2 33 2 2 1 2




Yeovil latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Boreham Wood A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Chesterfield H 0 2 L U Ng
11 Sep Stockport A 3 0 W O Ng
04 Sep Halifax H 1 0 W U Ng
30 Aug Aldershot A 2 1 W O Gg
28 Aug King’s Lynn H 1 2 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Maidenhead basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 1 5 6 4 6 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Away 1 0 2 33 2 3 2 1




Maidenhead latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct King’s Lynn H 2 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Grimsby H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Notts County A 0 1 L U Ng
14 Sep Stockport H 0 2 L U Ng
04 Sep Torquay H 3 4 L O Gg
30 Aug Weymouth A 1 3 L O Gg
28 Aug Dover Athletic H 2 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Halifax A 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Yeovil is 0.089 and for the Maidenhead is -1.
  • The home dynamic for the Yeovil is -0.524 and the dynamic as a guest for the Maidenhead is -0.612.
  • The offensive ability for the Yeovil is 0.465 and for the Maidenhead is -0.8.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Yeovil is 0.2 and for the Maidenhead is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Yeovil 25% 29% 25% 22%
Maidenhead 32% 36% 21% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.66 goals and Maidenhead to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the home team Yeovil to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.44 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Yeovil to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.66 0-1 3.83
1 5.49 2-3 2.07
2 4.22 4+ 3.91
3 4.05 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.21 Un 1.5 3.83
5 13.89 Ov 2.5 1.99
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2.01
Gg 1.96 Ov 3.5 3.91
NoG 2.04 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.81 3.3 2.93
2-3 goals 2 4.65 3.51
4+ goals 2.08 3.37 4.49
Ov 1.5 2.03 4.11 3.79
Un 1.5 2.81 3.3 2.93
Ov 2.5 1.77 6.62 3.52
Un 2.5 2.86 2.72 3.53
Ov 3.5 2.08 3.37 4.49
Un 3.5 2.22 4.07 3.28
Goal-Goal 2.39 2.84 4.37
No Goal 2.01 6.2 2.93
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.9 5.36 3.48
NG+Un 2.5 2.26 6.2 2.79



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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