Almeria Vs Las Palmas

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Almeria and Las Palmas for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.84 3.46 4.53 2.07 1.82
Estim 1.94 3.85 4.48 2.16 1.86
Value % -2.8 -2.93 0.25 -2.01 -1.18



Basic Data and latest results


Almeria basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 5 4 4 2
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 2 3 0
At Home 3 0 0 100 3 2 2 1




Almeria latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
04 Oct Girona A 2 1 W O Gg
24 Sep Tenerife H 3 1 W O Gg
17 Sep Alcorcon A 4 0 W O Ng
12 Sep Ponferradina A 0 1 L U Ng
04 Sep Malaga H 2 0 W U Ng
29 Aug Amorebieta A 1 2 L O Gg
20 Aug Oviedo H 2 1 W O Gg
16 Aug Cartagena A 3 1 W O Gg



Las Palmas basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 5 5 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 2 2 1
At Away 0 2 1 22 1 1 1 2




Las Palmas latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Oct Cartagena H 4 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Ponferradina H 2 1 W O Gg
20 Sep Burgos A 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Ibiza H 1 1 D U Gg
05 Sep Mirandes A 2 4 L O Gg
27 Aug Huesca H 2 1 W O Gg
22 Aug Girona A 0 0 D U Ng
15 Aug Valladolid H 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Almeria is 0.617 and for the Las Palmas is 0.526.
  • The home dynamic for the Almeria is 0.96 and the dynamic as a guest for the Las Palmas is -0.303.
  • The offensive ability for the Almeria is 0.522 and for the Las Palmas is 0.497.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Almeria is -0.253 and for the Las Palmas is -0.361.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Almeria 19% 34% 27% 20%
Las Palmas 39% 36% 18% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Almeria to score 1.58 goals and Las Palmas to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Almeria to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Almeria to score 1.47 goals and Las Palmas to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Almeria to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.51 0-1 3.61
1 4.93 2-3 1.96
2 3.82 4+ 4.69
3 4.02 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 6.94 Un 1.5 3.61
5 18.18 Ov 2.5 2.16
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.86
Gg 2.02 Ov 3.5 4.69
NoG 1.98 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.08 3.74 3.96
2-3 goals 1.85 4.12 4.6
4+ goals 1.97 3.44 4.95
Ov 1.5 1.89 3.89 4.7
Un 1.5 2.08 3.74 3.96
Ov 2.5 1.64 7.45 3.88
Un 2.5 2.28 2.72 5.13
Ov 3.5 1.97 3.44 4.95
Un 3.5 1.93 3.98 4.35
Goal-Goal 2.43 2.66 4.71
No Goal 1.62 6.84 4.25
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.82 5.98 3.53
NG+Un 2.5 1.76 6.84 3.95



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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