Barrow Vs Leyton Orient

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Barrow and Leyton Orient for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.47 3.24 2.9 2.15 1.71
Estim 2.44 3.56 3.22 2.29 1.78
Value % 0.5 -2.77 -3.43 -2.84 -2.3



Basic Data and latest results


Barrow basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 6 4 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2
At Home 2 2 1 53 4 4 3 2




Barrow latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Mansfield A 1 0 W U Ng
24 Sep Newport County H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Bradford A 1 1 D U Gg
10 Sep Colchester H 2 3 L O Gg
04 Sep Oldham A 3 0 W O Ng
28 Aug Bristol Rvs H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Harrogate A 1 2 L O Gg
17 Aug Exeter H 0 0 D U Ng



Leyton Orient basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 5 3 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1
At Away 1 3 1 40 5 5 3 2




Leyton Orient latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Port Vale A 2 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Mansfield H 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Bristol Rvs A 3 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Oldham H 4 0 W O Ng
04 Sep Newport County A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Aug Bradford H 2 0 W U Ng
24 Aug Harrogate H 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Carlisle A 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Barrow is 0.563 and for the Leyton Orient is 0.389.
  • The home dynamic for the Barrow is 0.192 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leyton Orient is 0.124.
  • The offensive ability for the Barrow is 1 and for the Leyton Orient is 0.465.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Barrow is -0.202 and for the Leyton Orient is 0.769.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Barrow 27% 36% 23% 15%
Leyton Orient 33% 37% 20% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.22 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.26 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.49 0-1 3.31
1 4.65 2-3 2.02
2 3.83 4+ 4.88
3 4.29 Ov 1.5 1.43
4 7.3 Un 1.5 3.31
5 18.87 Ov 2.5 2.28
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.78
Gg 2.02 Ov 3.5 4.88
NoG 1.98 Un 3.5 1.26


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.6 3.47 3.05
2-3 goals 2.39 3.71 3.21
4+ goals 2.41 3.31 3.53
Ov 1.5 2.39 3.58 3.3
Un 1.5 2.6 3.47 3.05
Ov 2.5 2.01 7.06 2.77
Un 2.5 2.96 2.56 3.68
Ov 3.5 2.41 3.31 3.53
Un 3.5 2.46 3.62 3.15
Goal-Goal 2.92 2.54 3.79
No Goal 2.12 5.8 2.81
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.14 5.85 2.77
NG+Un 2.5 2.26 5.8 2.81



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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