Bristol Rvs Vs Carlisle

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Bristol Rvs and Carlisle for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.56 3.18 2.84 2.17 1.7
Estim 2.49 3.62 3.1 2.28 1.78
Value % 1.1 -3.82 -2.95 -2.22 -2.64



Basic Data and latest results


Bristol Rvs basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 5 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 3 3 0
At Home 2 0 3 40 4 3 2 3




Bristol Rvs latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Swindon H 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Walsall A 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Leyton Orient H 1 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Hartlepool A 0 1 L U Ng
04 Sep Crawley Town H 1 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Barrow A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Exeter A 1 4 L O Gg
17 Aug Oldham H 1 0 W U Ng



Carlisle basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 4 6 5 1
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 2 1
At Away 1 1 3 27 3 4 4 1




Carlisle latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Forest Green H 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Sutton A 0 4 L O Ng
18 Sep Scunthorpe H 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Crawley Town A 1 2 L O Gg
04 Sep Salford H 2 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Hartlepool A 1 2 L O Gg
21 Aug Leyton Orient H 1 1 D U Gg
17 Aug Port Vale A 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Bristol Rvs is -0.279 and for the Carlisle is -0.758.
  • The home dynamic for the Bristol Rvs is -0.24 and the dynamic as a guest for the Carlisle is -0.551.
  • The offensive ability for the Bristol Rvs is 0.522 and for the Carlisle is -0.102.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Bristol Rvs is -0.657 and for the Carlisle is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Bristol Rvs 30% 30% 27% 13%
Carlisle 32% 37% 20% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bristol Rvs to score 1.19 goals and Carlisle to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bristol Rvs to score 1.23 goals and Carlisle to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.53 0-1 3.31
1 4.83 2-3 2.02
2 3.85 4+ 4.93
3 4.26 Ov 1.5 1.43
4 7.41 Un 1.5 3.31
5 18.18 Ov 2.5 2.28
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.78
Gg 2.1 Ov 3.5 4.93
NoG 1.91 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.08 3.18 2.77
2-3 goals 2.16 4.42 3.21
4+ goals 2.71 2.94 3.44
Ov 1.5 2.3 3.86 3.28
Un 1.5 3.08 3.18 2.77
Ov 2.5 2.02 6.35 2.88
Un 2.5 3.04 2.71 3.31
Ov 3.5 2.71 2.94 3.44
Un 3.5 2.44 3.85 3.03
Goal-Goal 2.73 2.64 3.94
No Goal 2.3 5.51 2.6
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.09 5.29 3.02
NG+Un 2.5 2.43 5.51 2.65



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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