Cartagena Vs Ibiza

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Cartagena and Ibiza for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.45 3.09 3.13 2.51 1.57
Estim 2.36 3.53 3.41 2.42 1.71
Value % 1.56 -4.03 -2.62 1.48 -5.21



Basic Data and latest results


Cartagena basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 5 4 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 3 3 0
At Home 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1




Cartagena latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Oct Las Palmas A 1 4 L O Gg
27 Sep Fuenlabrada A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Lugo H 2 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Oviedo A 0 2 L U Ng
04 Sep Sociedad B H 1 0 W U Ng
30 Aug Zaragoza A 1 0 W U Ng
22 Aug Huesca A 0 2 L U Ng
16 Aug Almeria H 1 3 L O Gg



Ibiza basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 6 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Away 1 2 1 42 3 3 2 2




Ibiza latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Oct Eibar A 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Burgos H 2 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Oviedo H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Las Palmas A 1 1 D U Gg
05 Sep Amorebieta H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Leganes A 2 1 W O Gg
22 Aug Malaga H 2 2 D O Gg
13 Aug Zaragoza A 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Cartagena is -0.115 and for the Ibiza is 0.179.
  • The home dynamic for the Cartagena is 0.376 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ibiza is 0.09.
  • The offensive ability for the Cartagena is 0.522 and for the Ibiza is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Cartagena is -0.339 and for the Ibiza is -0.32.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Cartagena 27% 35% 24% 13%
Ibiza 35% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.14 goals and Ibiza to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.24 goals and Ibiza to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.53 0-1 3.14
1 4.48 2-3 2.02
2 3.73 4+ 5.41
3 4.39 Ov 1.5 1.47
4 7.87 Un 1.5 3.14
5 21.28 Ov 2.5 2.42
6+ 90.91 Un 2.5 1.71
Gg 2.11 Ov 3.5 5.41
NoG 1.9 Un 3.5 1.23


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.56 3.35 3.21
2-3 goals 2.22 3.82 3.47
4+ goals 2.47 3.14 3.63
Ov 1.5 2.29 3.6 3.51
Un 1.5 2.56 3.35 3.21
Ov 2.5 1.95 7 2.91
Un 2.5 2.79 2.6 3.88
Ov 3.5 2.47 3.14 3.63
Un 3.5 2.35 3.62 3.36
Goal-Goal 2.87 2.5 3.97
No Goal 2.05 5.54 3.02
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.08 5.81 2.88
NG+Un 2.5 2.17 5.54 3.02



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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