Dover Athletic Vs Barnet

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Dover Athletic and Barnet for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.53 3.29 2.65 1.95 1.84
Estim 2.65 3.66 2.86 2.01 1.99
Value % -1.79 -3.07 -2.77 -1.53 -4.1



Basic Data and latest results


Dover Athletic basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 3 5 3 3
Last 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 2 1
At Home 0 2 3 13 1 3 1 4




Dover Athletic latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Oct Aldershot H 1 2 L O Gg
02 Oct Grimsby A 0 6 L O Ng
25 Sep Bromley H 0 1 L U Ng
21 Sep Solihull H 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Weymouth A 1 1 D U Gg
14 Sep Eastleigh A 1 4 L O Gg
11 Sep Chesterfield H 0 0 D U Ng
04 Sep Altrincham A 2 3 L O Gg



Barnet basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 5 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 2 1 2
At Away 0 2 3 13 4 5 2 3




Barnet latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Oct King’s Lynn A 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Halifax H 0 0 D U Ng
25 Sep Weymouth H 3 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Bromley A 0 2 L U Ng
14 Sep Chesterfield A 2 4 L O Gg
11 Sep Eastleigh H 1 1 D U Gg
04 Sep Grimsby A 3 4 L O Gg
30 Aug Dag and Red H 0 2 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Dover Athletic is -1 and for the Barnet is -0.189.
  • The home dynamic for the Dover Athletic is -0.64 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barnet is -0.73.
  • The offensive ability for the Dover Athletic is -0.556 and for the Barnet is 0.005.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Dover Athletic is -0.631 and for the Barnet is -0.32.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Dover Athletic 24% 38% 23% 15%
Barnet 28% 35% 23% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dover Athletic to score 1.26 goals and Barnet to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dover Athletic to score 1.3 goals and Barnet to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.15 0-1 3.95
1 5.35 2-3 2.02
2 4 4+ 3.97
3 4.07 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 6.21 Un 1.5 3.95
5 14.49 Ov 2.5 2.01
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 1.99
Gg 1.81 Ov 3.5 3.97
NoG 2.23 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.43 3.83 3.05
2-3 goals 2.68 3.79 2.76
4+ goals 2.83 3.32 2.9
Ov 1.5 2.73 3.61 2.8
Un 1.5 2.43 3.83 3.05
Ov 2.5 2.36 6.55 2.36
Un 2.5 3.01 2.55 3.62
Ov 3.5 2.83 3.32 2.9
Un 3.5 2.59 3.8 2.85
Goal-Goal 3.27 2.67 3.14
No Goal 2.15 6.8 2.58
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.49 5.54 2.39
NG+Un 2.5 2.23 6.8 2.68



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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