Forest Green Vs Swindon

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Forest Green and Swindon for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.82 3.58 4.31 2.01 1.81
Estim 2.46 3.62 3.15 2.16 1.86
Value % -14.29 -0.31 8.54 -3.45 -1.49



Basic Data and latest results


Forest Green basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 3 1 1 5
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 0 1 2
At Home 3 1 1 67 3 3 2 3




Forest Green latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Carlisle A 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Tranmere H 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Stevenage A 4 0 W O Ng
11 Sep Northampton H 1 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Exeter A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Port Vale H 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Crawley Town H 6 3 W O Gg
17 Aug Rochdale A 2 1 W O Gg



Swindon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 4 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 2 1 2
At Away 3 2 0 73 5 4 2 3




Swindon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Bristol Rvs A 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Colchester H 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Northampton A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Port Vale H 1 2 L O Gg
04 Sep Stevenage A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Mansfield H 1 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Salford A 1 0 W U Ng
17 Aug Tranmere H 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Forest Green is 0.596 and for the Swindon is 0.242.
  • The home dynamic for the Forest Green is 0.384 and the dynamic as a guest for the Swindon is 1.
  • The offensive ability for the Forest Green is -0.411 and for the Swindon is 0.465.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Forest Green is 1 and for the Swindon is 0.184.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Forest Green 25% 37% 22% 16%
Swindon 31% 36% 21% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Forest Green to score 1.58 goals and Swindon to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Forest Green to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Forest Green to score 1.3 goals and Swindon to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.99 0-1 3.55
1 4.88 2-3 2.03
2 3.92 4+ 4.42
3 4.22 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 6.8 Un 1.5 3.55
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.16
6+ 52.63 Un 2.5 1.86
Gg 1.93 Ov 3.5 4.42
NoG 2.07 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.45 3.66 3.13
2-3 goals 2.47 3.7 3.08
4+ goals 2.46 3.42 3.32
Ov 1.5 2.47 3.61 3.15
Un 1.5 2.45 3.66 3.13
Ov 2.5 2.09 7.02 2.65
Un 2.5 2.92 2.56 3.76
Ov 3.5 2.46 3.42 3.32
Un 3.5 2.46 3.69 3.1
Goal-Goal 3.01 2.6 3.54
No Goal 2.06 6.27 2.81
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.23 5.82 2.63
NG+Un 2.5 2.2 6.27 2.83



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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