Fuenlabrada Vs Leganes

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Leganes for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.55 2.94 3.1 2.64 1.51
Estim 2.14 3.65 3.86 2.29 1.78
Value % 7.51 -6.62 -6.35 5.79 -10.05



Basic Data and latest results


Fuenlabrada basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 3 4 1 5
Last 3 1 1 1 44 1 2 1 2
At Home 1 2 1 42 4 4 2 2




Fuenlabrada latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Oct Malaga A 0 1 L U Ng
27 Sep Cartagena H 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Huesca A 0 0 D U Ng
12 Sep Zaragoza H 1 1 D U Gg
04 Sep Lugo H 1 1 D U Gg
29 Aug Sociedad B A 0 0 D U Ng
21 Aug Alcorcon A 2 0 W U Ng
15 Aug Tenerife H 1 2 L O Gg



Leganes basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 5 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2
At Away 1 1 2 33 3 4 2 2




Leganes latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Oct Lugo H 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Mirandes A 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Amorebieta H 1 0 W U Ng
10 Sep Sp Gijon A 1 2 L O Gg
04 Sep Eibar A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Ibiza H 1 2 L O Gg
23 Aug Burgos H 0 0 D U Ng
14 Aug Sociedad B A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Fuenlabrada is -0.005 and for the Leganes is 0.084.
  • The home dynamic for the Fuenlabrada is 0.056 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leganes is -0.135.
  • The offensive ability for the Fuenlabrada is -0.522 and for the Leganes is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Fuenlabrada is -0.288 and for the Leganes is -0.361.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Fuenlabrada 23% 35% 26% 16%
Leganes 37% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.08 goals and Leganes to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.03 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.35 goals and Leganes to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Fuenlabrada to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.76 0-1 3.36
1 4.69 2-3 1.98
2 3.76 4+ 5
3 4.2 Ov 1.5 1.42
4 7.35 Un 1.5 3.36
5 19.61 Ov 2.5 2.28
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.77
Gg 2.05 Ov 3.5 5
NoG 1.95 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.35 3.51 3.47
2-3 goals 2.02 3.94 3.97
4+ goals 2.17 3.28 4.26
Ov 1.5 2.06 3.72 4.05
Un 1.5 2.35 3.51 3.47
Ov 2.5 1.77 7.18 3.37
Un 2.5 2.55 2.65 4.34
Ov 3.5 2.17 3.28 4.26
Un 3.5 2.13 3.77 3.77
Goal-Goal 2.61 2.58 4.36
No Goal 1.83 6.05 3.47
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.93 5.9 3.21
NG+Un 2.5 1.97 6.05 3.35



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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