Halifax Vs Weymouth

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Halifax and Weymouth for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.63 3.92 4.79 1.82 1.98
Estim 1.76 4.31 5.03 1.98 2.02
Value % -4.53 -2.31 -1 -4.44 -1



Basic Data and latest results


Halifax basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 5 3 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 1 1 2
At Home 4 0 1 80 5 3 4 1




Halifax latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Oct Notts County H 3 2 W O Gg
02 Oct Barnet A 0 0 D U Ng
25 Sep Aldershot A 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Stockport H 3 0 W O Ng
14 Sep Boreham Wood A 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Southend H 3 1 W O Gg
04 Sep Yeovil A 0 1 L U Ng
30 Aug Altrincham H 2 0 W U Ng



Weymouth basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 5 6 4 2
Last 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 3 0
At Away 1 0 4 20 3 5 4 1




Weymouth latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Oct Bromley A 0 3 L O Ng
02 Oct Stockport H 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Barnet A 1 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Dover Athletic H 1 1 D U Gg
14 Sep Dag and Red A 2 4 L O Gg
11 Sep Notts County H 1 1 D U Gg
04 Sep Solihull A 4 3 W O Gg
30 Aug Maidenhead H 3 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Halifax is 1 and for the Weymouth is -1.
  • The home dynamic for the Halifax is 0.688 and the dynamic as a guest for the Weymouth is -0.775.
  • The offensive ability for the Halifax is 0.444 and for the Weymouth is 0.433.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Halifax is 0.202 and for the Weymouth is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Halifax 24% 19% 27% 29%
Weymouth 42% 37% 15% 6%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.81 goals and Weymouth to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and the home team Halifax to win by 0.99 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.61 goals and Weymouth to score 0.86 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Halifax to win by 0.75 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 9.9 0-1 3.69
1 5.88 2-3 2.04
2 4.5 4+ 4.2
3 3.75 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 6.21 Un 1.5 3.69
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 1.98
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 2.03
Gg 2.27 Ov 3.5 4.2
NoG 1.8 Un 3.5 1.32


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.39 2.68 3.01
2-3 goals 1.46 6.79 6.04
4+ goals 1.57 4.1 8.5
Ov 1.5 1.49 5.59 6.67
Un 1.5 3.39 2.68 3.01
Ov 2.5 1.35 8.71 7.01
Un 2.5 2.55 2.85 3.88
Ov 3.5 1.57 4.1 8.5
Un 3.5 1.83 4.39 4.44
Goal-Goal 1.74 3.39 7.74
No Goal 1.77 5.51 3.92
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.45 6.36 6.47
NG+Un 2.5 2.18 5.51 3.31



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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