Hartlepool Vs Northampton

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Hartlepool and Northampton for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.55 3.11 2.89 2.42 1.56
Estim 2.84 3.79 2.6 2.09 1.92
Value % -4 -5.77 3.86 6.52 -12.02



Basic Data and latest results


Hartlepool basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 2 4 0 6
Last 3 0 2 1 22 1 2 0 3
At Home 4 1 0 87 5 2 1 4




Hartlepool latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Stevenage A 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Exeter H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Oldham A 0 0 D U Ng
14 Sep Sutton A 0 1 L U Ng
11 Sep Bristol Rvs H 1 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Tranmere A 0 1 L U Ng
28 Aug Carlisle H 2 1 W O Gg
21 Aug Walsall H 2 0 W U Ng



Northampton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 4 1 5
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 3 1 2
At Away 2 2 1 53 3 2 1 4




Northampton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Sutton H 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Salford A 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Swindon H 1 1 D U Gg
14 Sep Newport County A 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Forest Green A 0 1 L U Ng
04 Sep Scunthorpe H 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Crawley Town A 0 0 D U Ng
21 Aug Rochdale H 1 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Hartlepool is -0.497 and for the Northampton is -0.074.
  • The home dynamic for the Hartlepool is 0.8 and the dynamic as a guest for the Northampton is 0.416.
  • The offensive ability for the Hartlepool is -1 and for the Northampton is 0.005.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Hartlepool is -0.253 and for the Northampton is 0.088.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Hartlepool 34% 24% 30% 12%
Northampton 27% 36% 24% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hartlepool to score 1.11 goals and Northampton to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hartlepool to score 1.2 goals and Northampton to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.99 0-1 3.62
1 5.41 2-3 2.04
2 4.07 4+ 4.26
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 6.8 Un 1.5 3.62
5 14.08 Ov 2.5 2.09
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 1.92
Gg 2.06 Ov 3.5 4.26
NoG 1.94 Un 3.5 1.31


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 4.31 3.03 2.28
2-3 goals 2.24 5.69 2.64
4+ goals 3.36 2.67 3.05
Ov 1.5 2.51 4.16 2.76
Un 1.5 4.31 3.03 2.28
Ov 2.5 2.3 5.43 2.63
Un 2.5 3.62 2.95 2.6
Ov 3.5 3.36 2.67 3.05
Un 3.5 2.71 4.32 2.5
Goal-Goal 2.74 2.79 3.62
No Goal 2.94 5.66 2.07
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.25 4.53 2.98
NG+Un 2.5 3.03 5.66 2.17



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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