Ipswich Vs Shrewsbury

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Ipswich and Shrewsbury for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.82 3.56 4.42 2.06 1.78
Estim 2 3.64 4.46 2.37 1.73
Value % -4.95 -0.62 -0.2 -6.35 1.62



Basic Data and latest results


Ipswich basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 2 1
At Home 1 4 1 39 6 5 5 1




Ipswich latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Accrington A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Sep Doncaster H 6 0 W O Ng
25 Sep Sheffield Weds H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Lincoln A 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Bolton H 2 5 L O Gg
28 Aug AFC Wimbledon H 2 2 D O Gg
21 Aug Milton Keynes Dons H 2 2 D O Gg
17 Aug Cheltenham A 1 2 L O Gg



Shrewsbury basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 5 6 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 3 3 0
At Away 0 1 4 7 2 5 1 4




Shrewsbury latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Bolton A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Sep Wycombe H 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep AFC Wimbledon H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Sheffield Weds A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Crewe H 1 1 D U Gg
04 Sep Accrington A 0 1 L U Ng
28 Aug Gillingham H 2 1 W O Gg
21 Aug Plymouth H 0 3 L O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Ipswich is 0.016 and for the Shrewsbury is -0.495.
  • The home dynamic for the Ipswich is 0.024 and the dynamic as a guest for the Shrewsbury is -1.
  • The offensive ability for the Ipswich is 1 and for the Shrewsbury is 0.604.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Ipswich is -0.202 and for the Shrewsbury is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Ipswich 16% 44% 23% 16%
Shrewsbury 40% 35% 19% 6%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ipswich to score 1.56 goals and Shrewsbury to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Ipswich to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ipswich to score 1.39 goals and Shrewsbury to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Ipswich to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.15 0-1 3.34
1 4.29 2-3 1.93
2 3.57 4+ 5.43
3 4.2 Ov 1.5 1.42
4 7.75 Un 1.5 3.34
5 22.22 Ov 2.5 2.37
6+ 100 Un 2.5 1.73
Gg 1.98 Ov 3.5 5.43
NoG 2.02 Un 3.5 1.22


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.71 4.53 5.16
2-3 goals 2.17 3.32 4.21
4+ goals 2.11 3.41 4.28
Ov 1.5 2.15 3.34 4.23
Un 1.5 1.71 4.53 5.16
Ov 2.5 1.81 7.81 3.13
Un 2.5 2.16 2.61 6.51
Ov 3.5 2.11 3.41 4.28
Un 3.5 1.97 3.68 4.51
Goal-Goal 2.97 2.4 4.04
No Goal 1.5 7.52 5.01
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.05 6.46 2.79
NG+Un 2.5 1.58 7.52 4.75



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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