King’s Lynn Vs Solihull

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between King’s Lynn and Solihull for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.2 3.6 2.13 1.74 2.06
Estim 3.25 3.64 2.4 1.99 2.01
Value % -0.48 -0.31 -5.28 -7.22 1.21



Basic Data and latest results


King’s Lynn basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 5 6 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 2 1
At Home 0 1 4 7 2 5 1 4




King’s Lynn latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Oct Barnet H 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Maidenhead A 3 2 W O Gg
28 Sep Altrincham A 1 4 L O Gg
25 Sep Wealdstone H 0 1 L U Ng
11 Sep Dag and Red H 1 2 L O Gg
04 Sep Eastleigh A 3 3 D O Gg
30 Aug Chesterfield H 0 2 L U Ng
28 Aug Yeovil A 2 1 W O Gg



Solihull basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 4 3 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 1 1 2
At Away 1 2 1 42 2 2 2 2




Solihull latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Oct Wealdstone A 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Southend H 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Dag and Red A 1 5 L O Gg
21 Sep Dover Athletic A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Boreham Wood H 3 1 W O Gg
14 Sep Torquay H 2 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Aldershot A 2 1 W O Gg
04 Sep Weymouth H 3 4 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the King’s Lynn is -0.421 and for the Solihull is 0.421.
  • The home dynamic for the King’s Lynn is -0.8 and the dynamic as a guest for the Solihull is 0.09.
  • The offensive ability for the King’s Lynn is 0.522 and for the Solihull is -0.037.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the King’s Lynn is -1 and for the Solihull is 1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
King’s Lynn 25% 44% 20% 11%
Solihull 23% 33% 25% 18%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 1.16 goals and Solihull to score 1.56 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the guest team Solihull to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 1.18 goals and Solihull to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 17.54 0-1 4.15
1 5.43 2-3 1.98
2 3.92 4+ 3.95
3 4 Ov 1.5 1.32
4 5.95 Un 1.5 4.15
5 15.38 Ov 2.5 1.99
6+ 50 Un 2.5 2.02
Gg 1.73 Ov 3.5 3.95
NoG 2.38 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.36 4.23 2.94
2-3 goals 3.58 3.46 2.32
4+ goals 3.89 3.56 2.16
Ov 1.5 3.68 3.49 2.26
Un 1.5 2.36 4.23 2.94
Ov 2.5 3.16 7.08 1.84
Un 2.5 3.33 2.44 3.44
Ov 3.5 3.89 3.56 2.16
Un 3.5 3.07 3.67 2.49
Goal-Goal 4.35 2.66 2.54
No Goal 2.41 7.39 2.23
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.25 6.08 1.89
NG+Un 2.5 2.35 7.39 2.43



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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