Lugo Vs Girona

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Lugo and Girona for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.02 3.12 2.46 2.53 1.54
Estim 2.21 3.61 3.7 2.33 1.75
Value % 12.14 -4.35 -13.62 3.39 -7.79



Basic Data and latest results


Lugo basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 6 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 1 2
At Home 1 2 1 42 2 3 1 3




Lugo latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Oct Leganes A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Zaragoza H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Cartagena A 1 2 L O Gg
13 Sep Huesca H 3 2 W O Gg
04 Sep Fuenlabrada A 1 1 D U Gg
29 Aug Valladolid H 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Sociedad B H 0 0 D U Ng
15 Aug Oviedo A 2 2 D O Gg



Girona basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 4 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 1 1 2
At Away 0 1 2 11 1 2 1 2




Girona latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
04 Oct Almeria H 1 2 L O Gg
26 Sep Oviedo A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Valladolid H 1 0 W U Ng
12 Sep Malaga A 0 2 L U Ng
03 Sep Sp Gijon H 1 2 L O Gg
28 Aug Ponferradina A 1 2 L O Gg
22 Aug Las Palmas H 0 0 D U Ng
14 Aug Amorebieta H 2 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Lugo is -0.202 and for the Girona is -0.663.
  • The home dynamic for the Lugo is 0.024 and the dynamic as a guest for the Girona is -0.719.
  • The offensive ability for the Lugo is 0.589 and for the Girona is 0.005.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Lugo is -1 and for the Girona is 0.32.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Lugo 24% 35% 25% 15%
Girona 36% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lugo to score 0.97 goals and Girona to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.32 goals and Girona to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Lugo to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.24 0-1 3.27
1 4.61 2-3 1.99
2 3.75 4+ 5.15
3 4.24 Ov 1.5 1.43
4 7.52 Un 1.5 3.27
5 20.41 Ov 2.5 2.33
6+ 83.33 Un 2.5 1.75
Gg 2.07 Ov 3.5 5.15
NoG 1.92 Un 3.5 1.24


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.43 3.44 3.36
2-3 goals 2.08 3.9 3.81
4+ goals 2.26 3.23 4.04
Ov 1.5 2.12 3.69 3.87
Un 1.5 2.43 3.44 3.36
Ov 2.5 1.82 7.17 3.21
Un 2.5 2.63 2.63 4.18
Ov 3.5 2.26 3.23 4.04
Un 3.5 2.2 3.71 3.63
Goal-Goal 2.68 2.56 4.24
No Goal 1.9 5.84 3.31
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.97 5.9 3.11
NG+Un 2.5 2.04 5.84 3.24



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *