Mansfield Vs Oldham

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Mansfield and Oldham for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.88 3.66 4.03 1.88 1.93
Estim 2.31 3.64 3.4 2.17 1.85
Value % -9.9 0.15 4.6 -7.11 2.24



Basic Data and latest results


Mansfield basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 3 5 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 1 2 0 3
At Home 2 1 3 39 5 6 4 2




Mansfield latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Barrow H 0 1 L U Ng
25 Sep Leyton Orient A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Rochdale H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Walsall A 1 3 L O Gg
04 Sep Harrogate H 1 3 L O Gg
28 Aug Swindon A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Aug Bradford H 2 3 L O Gg
17 Aug Colchester A 1 1 D U Gg



Oldham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 1 1 2
At Away 2 0 3 40 3 4 3 2




Oldham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Harrogate H 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Rochdale A 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Hartlepool H 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Leyton Orient A 0 4 L O Ng
04 Sep Barrow H 0 3 L O Ng
28 Aug Sutton A 2 1 W O Gg
21 Aug Colchester H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Aug Bristol Rvs A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Mansfield is -0.934 and for the Oldham is -0.263.
  • The home dynamic for the Mansfield is -0.264 and the dynamic as a guest for the Oldham is -0.056.
  • The offensive ability for the Mansfield is -0.556 and for the Oldham is -0.39.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Mansfield is -0.571 and for the Oldham is 0.32.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Mansfield 24% 36% 24% 17%
Oldham 32% 37% 20% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.63 goals and Oldham to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Mansfield to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.33 goals and Oldham to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.82 0-1 3.53
1 4.88 2-3 2.01
2 3.88 4+ 4.52
3 4.18 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 6.85 Un 1.5 3.53
5 17.24 Ov 2.5 2.17
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 1.85
Gg 1.95 Ov 3.5 4.52
NoG 2.05 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.44 3.63 3.18
2-3 goals 2.26 3.77 3.43
4+ goals 2.3 3.4 3.68
Ov 1.5 2.27 3.64 3.5
Un 1.5 2.44 3.63 3.18
Ov 2.5 1.92 7.08 2.95
Un 2.5 2.8 2.58 3.92
Ov 3.5 2.3 3.4 3.68
Un 3.5 2.32 3.71 3.33
Goal-Goal 2.79 2.6 3.89
No Goal 1.97 6.26 3.01
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.07 5.86 2.89
NG+Un 2.5 2.12 6.26 2.96



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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