Newport County Vs Bradford

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Newport County and Bradford for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.7 3.29 2.61 2.14 1.73
Estim 2.34 3.65 3.36 2.19 1.84
Value % 5.7 -3 -8.55 -1.07 -3.46



Basic Data and latest results


Newport County basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 5 5 1
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 3 0
At Home 2 1 1 58 3 3 3 1




Newport County latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Scunthorpe H 3 0 W O Ng
24 Sep Barrow A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Walsall H 2 1 W O Gg
14 Sep Northampton H 0 1 L U Ng
10 Sep Harrogate A 2 2 D O Gg
04 Sep Leyton Orient H 2 2 D O Gg
28 Aug Salford A 0 3 L O Ng
21 Aug Tranmere A 1 0 W U Ng



Bradford basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 5 1 5
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Away 1 1 3 27 2 4 2 3




Bradford latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Rochdale H 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Crawley Town A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Barrow H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Salford A 0 1 L U Ng
04 Sep Walsall H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Leyton Orient A 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Mansfield A 3 2 W O Gg
17 Aug Stevenage H 4 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Newport County is 0.049 and for the Bradford is -0.4.
  • The home dynamic for the Newport County is 0.304 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bradford is -0.528.
  • The offensive ability for the Newport County is 0.522 and for the Bradford is 0.144.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Newport County is -0.545 and for the Bradford is -0.279.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Newport County 26% 33% 26% 16%
Bradford 32% 37% 20% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.15 goals and Bradford to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.32 goals and Bradford to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.05 0-1 3.5
1 4.93 2-3 2
2 3.86 4+ 4.61
3 4.17 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 6.99 Un 1.5 3.5
5 17.24 Ov 2.5 2.19
6+ 62.5 Un 2.5 1.83
Gg 1.99 Ov 3.5 4.61
NoG 2 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.65 3.45 3.01
2-3 goals 2.17 4.06 3.42
4+ goals 2.41 3.19 3.68
Ov 1.5 2.24 3.75 3.49
Un 1.5 2.65 3.45 3.01
Ov 2.5 1.94 6.72 2.99
Un 2.5 2.84 2.65 3.71
Ov 3.5 2.41 3.19 3.68
Un 3.5 2.32 3.81 3.26
Goal-Goal 2.72 2.63 3.96
No Goal 2.05 6.01 2.88
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.05 5.59 2.99
NG+Un 2.5 2.2 6.01 2.87



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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