Plymouth Vs Burton

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Plymouth and Burton for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.22 3.42 3.19 1.96 1.89
Estim 1.87 3.98 4.65 2.09 1.92
Value % 8.43 -4.11 -9.84 -3.17 -0.83



Basic Data and latest results


Plymouth basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 3 0 67 6 4 4 2
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 3 2 1
At Home 3 3 0 67 6 4 2 4




Plymouth latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Lincoln A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Sep Crewe H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Doncaster H 2 1 W O Gg
21 Sep Portsmouth A 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep AFC Wimbledon A 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Sheffield Weds H 3 0 W O Ng
28 Aug Fleetwood Town H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Shrewsbury A 3 0 W O Ng



Burton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 2 1
At Away 1 2 2 33 2 3 1 4




Burton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct AFC Wimbledon A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Sep Portsmouth H 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Lincoln H 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Crewe A 0 2 L U Ng
11 Sep Gillingham H 1 1 D U Gg
06 Sep Bolton A 0 0 D U Ng
27 Aug Cheltenham H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Cambridge A 0 3 L O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Plymouth is 0.694 and for the Burton is -0.211.
  • The home dynamic for the Plymouth is 0.536 and the dynamic as a guest for the Burton is -0.191.
  • The offensive ability for the Plymouth is 1 and for the Burton is 0.144.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Plymouth is -0.339 and for the Burton is -0.497.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Plymouth 16% 35% 28% 20%
Burton 40% 35% 15% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Plymouth to score 1.41 goals and Burton to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Plymouth to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Plymouth to score 1.52 goals and Burton to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Plymouth to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.15 0-1 3.82
1 5.1 2-3 1.96
2 3.85 4+ 4.37
3 4 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.71 Un 1.5 3.82
5 16.95 Ov 2.5 2.09
6+ 47.62 Un 2.5 1.92
Gg 1.98 Ov 3.5 4.37
NoG 2.01 Un 3.5 1.3


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.9 3.97 4.52
2-3 goals 1.73 4.15 5.54
4+ goals 2.25 3.63 3.58
Ov 1.5 1.86 3.97 4.74
Un 1.5 1.9 3.97 4.52
Ov 2.5 1.69 7.6 3.63
Un 2.5 2.08 2.76 6.37
Ov 3.5 2.25 3.63 3.58
Un 3.5 1.78 4.08 5.15
Goal-Goal 2.48 2.71 4.38
No Goal 1.5 7.53 5.02
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.88 6.05 3.31
NG+Un 2.5 1.59 7.53 4.87



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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