Rochdale Vs Crawley Town

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Rochdale and Crawley Town for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.93 3.49 3.95 1.98 1.84
Estim 2.36 3.65 3.3 2.15 1.87
Value % -9.44 -1.26 4.99 -3.99 -0.87



Basic Data and latest results


Rochdale basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 5 1 5
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 0 3
At Home 1 2 2 33 3 3 1 4




Rochdale latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Bradford A 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Oldham H 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Mansfield A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Tranmere H 1 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Port Vale A 3 2 W O Gg
27 Aug Colchester H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Northampton A 3 1 W O Gg
17 Aug Forest Green H 1 2 L O Gg



Crawley Town basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 5 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 3 0
At Away 1 0 4 20 3 4 2 3




Crawley Town latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Tranmere A 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Bradford H 2 1 W O Gg
21 Sep Harrogate H 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Colchester A 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Carlisle H 2 1 W O Gg
04 Sep Bristol Rvs A 0 1 L U Ng
28 Aug Northampton H 0 0 D U Ng
21 Aug Forest Green A 3 6 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Rochdale is -0.093 and for the Crawley Town is 0.232.
  • The home dynamic for the Rochdale is -0.208 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crawley Town is -0.685.
  • The offensive ability for the Rochdale is -0.144 and for the Crawley Town is 0.604.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Rochdale is -0.631 and for the Crawley Town is -0.415.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Rochdale 24% 35% 24% 16%
Crawley Town 32% 37% 21% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.54 goals and Crawley Town to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Rochdale to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.33 goals and Crawley Town to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.82 0-1 3.58
1 4.98 2-3 2.02
2 3.91 4+ 4.42
3 4.18 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 6.76 Un 1.5 3.58
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.15
6+ 55.56 Un 2.5 1.87
Gg 1.94 Ov 3.5 4.42
NoG 2.07 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.49 3.58 3.13
2-3 goals 2.29 3.84 3.3
4+ goals 2.4 3.32 3.53
Ov 1.5 2.33 3.66 3.37
Un 1.5 2.49 3.58 3.13
Ov 2.5 1.99 6.84 2.85
Un 2.5 2.85 2.58 3.82
Ov 3.5 2.4 3.32 3.53
Un 3.5 2.36 3.74 3.24
Goal-Goal 2.84 2.62 3.77
No Goal 2.02 6.21 2.92
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.13 5.69 2.82
NG+Un 2.5 2.16 6.21 2.9



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *