Sociedad B Vs Ponferradina

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Sociedad B and Ponferradina for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.49 3.12 2.85 2.31 1.64
Estim 2.44 3.5 3.28 2.45 1.69
Value % 0.82 -3.48 -4.6 -2.47 -1.8



Basic Data and latest results


Sociedad B basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 3 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Home 1 1 2 33 2 2 1 3




Sociedad B latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Alcorcon A 4 1 W O Gg
24 Sep Huesca H 0 2 L U Ng
18 Sep Zaragoza A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Eibar H 2 3 L O Gg
04 Sep Cartagena A 0 1 L U Ng
29 Aug Fuenlabrada H 0 0 D U Ng
21 Aug Lugo A 0 0 D U Ng
14 Aug Leganes H 1 0 W U Ng



Ponferradina basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 3 0
At Away 1 0 2 33 2 2 1 2




Ponferradina latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Oct Valladolid H 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Las Palmas A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Malaga H 4 0 W O Ng
12 Sep Almeria H 1 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Tenerife A 0 2 L U Ng
28 Aug Girona H 2 1 W O Gg
22 Aug Eibar A 1 0 W U Ng
14 Aug Alcorcon H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Sociedad B is -0.421 and for the Ponferradina is 0.189.
  • The home dynamic for the Sociedad B is -0.32 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ponferradina is -0.382.
  • The offensive ability for the Sociedad B is -0.411 and for the Ponferradina is 0.572.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Sociedad B is -0.682 and for the Ponferradina is 0.224.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Sociedad B 28% 36% 24% 12%
Ponferradina 35% 37% 20% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sociedad B to score 1.16 goals and Ponferradina to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sociedad B to score 1.21 goals and Ponferradina to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.31 0-1 3.1
1 4.42 2-3 2.02
2 3.72 4+ 5.49
3 4.42 Ov 1.5 1.48
4 8 Un 1.5 3.1
5 21.74 Ov 2.5 2.45
6+ 90.91 Un 2.5 1.69
Gg 2.13 Ov 3.5 5.49
NoG 1.89 Un 3.5 1.22


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.6 3.33 3.17
2-3 goals 2.3 3.81 3.3
4+ goals 2.56 3.08 3.5
Ov 1.5 2.37 3.58 3.35
Un 1.5 2.6 3.33 3.17
Ov 2.5 2.02 6.92 2.78
Un 2.5 2.85 2.61 3.77
Ov 3.5 2.56 3.08 3.5
Un 3.5 2.41 3.6 3.25
Goal-Goal 2.96 2.49 3.85
No Goal 2.11 5.46 2.91
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.14 5.76 2.79
NG+Un 2.5 2.22 5.46 2.94



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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