Southend Vs Chesterfield

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Southend and Chesterfield for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.24 3.31 2.16 2.05 1.76
Estim 3.58 3.65 2.24 1.95 2.06
Value % -2.93 -2.81 -1.65 2.5 -8.27



Basic Data and latest results


Southend basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 4 5 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 2 0 3
At Home 1 1 2 33 3 3 2 2




Southend latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Oct Eastleigh H 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Solihull A 0 2 L U Ng
18 Sep Torquay A 0 1 L U Ng
14 Sep Aldershot H 2 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Halifax A 1 3 L O Gg
04 Sep Wrexham H 2 2 D O Gg
30 Aug Wealdstone A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Stockport H 0 1 L U Ng



Chesterfield basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 4 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 2 1
At Away 3 2 1 61 5 2 1 5




Chesterfield latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Oct Wrexham A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Sep Woking A 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Torquay H 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Yeovil A 2 0 W U Ng
14 Sep Barnet H 4 2 W O Gg
11 Sep Dover Athletic A 0 0 D U Ng
04 Sep Bromley H 2 2 D O Gg
30 Aug King’s Lynn A 2 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Southend is -0.672 and for the Chesterfield is 0.179.
  • The home dynamic for the Southend is -0.2 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chesterfield is 0.562.
  • The offensive ability for the Southend is -0.078 and for the Chesterfield is 0.604.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Southend is -0.545 and for the Chesterfield is 0.088.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Southend 24% 47% 19% 10%
Chesterfield 21% 33% 26% 20%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southend to score 1.02 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the guest team Chesterfield to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southend to score 1.15 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.45 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.3 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 19.61 0-1 4.37
1 5.62 2-3 1.95
2 3.89 4+ 3.86
3 3.92 Ov 1.5 1.3
4 5.68 Un 1.5 4.37
5 15.87 Ov 2.5 1.95
6+ 50 Un 2.5 2.06
Gg 1.67 Ov 3.5 3.86
NoG 2.49 Un 3.5 1.35


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.31 4.49 2.9
2-3 goals 4.23 3.32 2.16
4+ goals 4.39 3.75 1.98
Ov 1.5 4.28 3.46 2.1
Un 1.5 2.31 4.49 2.9
Ov 2.5 3.65 7.45 1.69
Un 2.5 3.52 2.37 3.4
Ov 3.5 4.39 3.75 1.98
Un 3.5 3.37 3.61 2.34
Goal-Goal 4.98 2.68 2.35
No Goal 2.53 7.88 2.09
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.7 6.43 1.74
NG+Un 2.5 2.41 7.88 2.32



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *