Stockport Vs Aldershot

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Stockport and Aldershot for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.55 4.05 5.43 1.82 1.97
Estim 2.68 3.69 2.82 2.02 1.98
Value % -27.2 2.41 17.04 -5.44 -0.26



Basic Data and latest results


Stockport basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 3 4 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 3 0
At Home 1 1 2 33 2 3 3 1




Stockport latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Weymouth A 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Wrexham H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Halifax A 0 3 L O Ng
14 Sep Maidenhead A 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Yeovil H 0 3 L O Ng
04 Sep Boreham Wood A 0 0 D U Ng
31 Aug Grimsby H 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Southend A 1 0 W U Ng



Aldershot basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 6 5 1
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 2 1
At Away 2 1 2 47 4 5 4 1




Aldershot latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Oct Dover Athletic A 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Halifax H 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Wealdstone A 2 2 D O Gg
14 Sep Southend A 3 2 W O Gg
11 Sep Solihull H 1 2 L O Gg
04 Sep Notts County A 2 3 L O Gg
30 Aug Yeovil H 1 2 L O Gg
28 Aug Boreham Wood A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Stockport is 0.344 and for the Aldershot is -0.158.
  • The home dynamic for the Stockport is -0.2 and the dynamic as a guest for the Aldershot is 0.258.
  • The offensive ability for the Stockport is -0.367 and for the Aldershot is 0.465.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Stockport is -0.313 and for the Aldershot is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Stockport 26% 36% 23% 15%
Aldershot 28% 35% 23% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stockport to score 1.87 goals and Aldershot to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Stockport to win by 1.12 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stockport to score 1.28 goals and Aldershot to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.29 0-1 3.88
1 5.32 2-3 2.03
2 4.03 4+ 4
3 4.1 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.29 Un 1.5 3.88
5 14.49 Ov 2.5 2.02
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 1.98
Gg 1.85 Ov 3.5 4
NoG 2.17 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.58 3.69 2.93
2-3 goals 2.66 3.94 2.7
4+ goals 2.81 3.29 2.94
Ov 1.5 2.71 3.69 2.78
Un 1.5 2.58 3.69 2.93
Ov 2.5 2.34 6.5 2.39
Un 2.5 3.1 2.59 3.42
Ov 3.5 2.81 3.29 2.94
Un 3.5 2.63 3.85 2.78
Goal-Goal 3.2 2.69 3.18
No Goal 2.24 6.57 2.49
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.46 5.46 2.44
NG+Un 2.5 2.34 6.57 2.57



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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