Sutton Vs Port Vale

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Sutton and Port Vale for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.6 3.12 2.77 2.31 1.6
Estim 2.58 3.66 2.95 2.22 1.82
Value % 0.3 -4.73 -2.2 1.76 -7.55



Basic Data and latest results


Sutton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 5 3 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 1 1 2
At Home 3 0 1 75 4 2 3 1




Sutton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Northampton A 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Carlisle H 4 0 W O Ng
18 Sep Exeter A 0 2 L U Ng
14 Sep Hartlepool H 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Stevenage H 2 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Oldham H 1 2 L O Gg
21 Aug Scunthorpe A 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Salford A 0 0 D U Ng



Port Vale basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 0 1 83 6 3 3 3
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 1 1 2
At Away 3 1 1 67 4 3 1 4




Port Vale latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Leyton Orient H 3 2 W O Gg
25 Sep Scunthorpe A 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Harrogate H 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Swindon A 2 1 W O Gg
04 Sep Rochdale H 2 3 L O Gg
28 Aug Forest Green A 2 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Stevenage A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Aug Carlisle H 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Sutton is 0.585 and for the Port Vale is 1.
  • The home dynamic for the Sutton is 0.56 and the dynamic as a guest for the Port Vale is 0.843.
  • The offensive ability for the Sutton is 0.478 and for the Port Vale is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Sutton is 0.262 and for the Port Vale is 0.81.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Sutton 31% 29% 28% 12%
Port Vale 31% 36% 21% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.12 goals and Port Vale to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.22 goals and Port Vale to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.53 0-1 3.39
1 5 2-3 2.03
2 3.92 4+ 4.67
3 4.2 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 7.19 Un 1.5 3.39
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.21
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.82
Gg 2.08 Ov 3.5 4.67
NoG 1.92 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.28 3.11 2.68
2-3 goals 2.18 4.74 3.02
4+ goals 2.97 2.85 3.19
Ov 1.5 2.37 3.95 3.07
Un 1.5 3.28 3.11 2.68
Ov 2.5 2.13 6.03 2.74
Un 2.5 3.13 2.76 3.14
Ov 3.5 2.97 2.85 3.19
Un 3.5 2.49 3.96 2.89
Goal-Goal 2.78 2.69 3.73
No Goal 2.42 5.48 2.47
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.18 5.03 2.92
NG+Un 2.5 2.53 5.48 2.55



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *