Tenerife Vs Amorebieta

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Tenerife and Amorebieta for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.61 3.65 5.88 2.41 1.63
Estim 1.73 4.1 5.59 2.2 1.83
Value % -4.31 -3.01 0.88 3.96 -6.7



Basic Data and latest results


Tenerife basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 3 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 3 3 0
At Home 1 1 1 44 2 1 1 2




Tenerife latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Huesca A 2 1 W O Gg
24 Sep Almeria A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Mirandes H 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Valladolid A 2 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Ponferradina H 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Oviedo A 0 0 D U Ng
21 Aug Sp Gijon H 0 0 D U Ng
15 Aug Fuenlabrada A 2 1 W O Gg



Amorebieta basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 5 6 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 3 0 3
At Away 0 1 3 8 1 4 0 4




Amorebieta latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Sp Gijon H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Eibar H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Leganes A 0 1 L U Ng
11 Sep Burgos H 2 2 D O Gg
05 Sep Ibiza A 1 1 D U Gg
29 Aug Almeria H 2 1 W O Gg
23 Aug Mirandes A 0 2 L U Ng
14 Aug Girona A 0 2 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Tenerife is 0.235 and for the Amorebieta is -0.053.
  • The home dynamic for the Tenerife is -0.024 and the dynamic as a guest for the Amorebieta is -0.888.
  • The offensive ability for the Tenerife is 0.589 and for the Amorebieta is 0.497.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Tenerife is 0.03 and for the Amorebieta is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Tenerife 18% 33% 26% 24%
Amorebieta 46% 35% 13% 6%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tenerife to score 1.55 goals and Amorebieta to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the home team Tenerife to win by 0.92 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tenerife to score 1.55 goals and Amorebieta to score 0.81 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Tenerife to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.35 0-1 3.41
1 4.72 2-3 1.97
2 3.94 4+ 5
3 3.95 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 7.3 Un 1.5 3.41
5 20.83 Ov 2.5 2.21
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.83
Gg 2.24 Ov 3.5 5
NoG 1.81 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.95 3.62 4.73
2-3 goals 1.62 4.45 6.34
4+ goals 1.75 4.08 5.41
Ov 1.5 1.66 4.34 6.04
Un 1.5 1.95 3.62 4.73
Ov 2.5 1.46 9.24 4.87
Un 2.5 2.06 2.81 6.36
Ov 3.5 1.75 4.08 5.41
Un 3.5 1.73 4.1 5.63
Goal-Goal 2.21 2.74 5.51
No Goal 1.48 6.84 5.65
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.64 6.78 4.1
NG+Un 2.5 1.63 6.84 5.03



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *