Tranmere Vs Colchester

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Tranmere and Colchester for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.09 3.21 3.76 2.29 1.63
Estim 2.83 3.83 2.58 2.07 1.93
Value % -12.51 -5.04 12.16 4.64 -9.54



Basic Data and latest results


Tranmere basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 3 3 1 5
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 1 1 2
At Home 4 0 1 80 4 2 1 4




Tranmere latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Crawley Town H 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Forest Green A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Salford H 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Rochdale A 0 1 L U Ng
04 Sep Hartlepool H 1 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Scunthorpe A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Aug Newport County H 0 1 L U Ng
17 Aug Swindon A 0 0 D U Ng



Colchester basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 3 5 2 4
Last 3 0 1 2 11 0 2 0 3
At Away 2 3 0 60 3 3 2 3




Colchester latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Salford H 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Swindon A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Crawley Town H 0 1 L U Ng
10 Sep Barrow A 3 2 W O Gg
27 Aug Rochdale A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Oldham A 2 1 W O Gg
17 Aug Mansfield H 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Northampton H 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Tranmere is 0.344 and for the Colchester is -0.105.
  • The home dynamic for the Tranmere is 0.656 and the dynamic as a guest for the Colchester is 0.73.
  • The offensive ability for the Tranmere is -0.444 and for the Colchester is -0.604.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Tranmere is 0.176 and for the Colchester is -0.32.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Tranmere 35% 22% 31% 12%
Colchester 26% 36% 24% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.33 goals and Colchester to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and the home team Tranmere to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.2 goals and Colchester to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.75 0-1 3.62
1 5.46 2-3 2.06
2 4.12 4+ 4.2
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 6.76 Un 1.5 3.62
5 13.7 Ov 2.5 2.08
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 1.93
Gg 2.1 Ov 3.5 4.2
NoG 1.91 Un 3.5 1.31


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 4.84 2.97 2.19
2-3 goals 2.19 6.23 2.61
4+ goals 3.26 2.64 3.17
Ov 1.5 2.45 4.31 2.77
Un 1.5 4.84 2.97 2.19
Ov 2.5 2.25 5.34 2.72
Un 2.5 3.76 3.04 2.47
Ov 3.5 3.26 2.64 3.17
Un 3.5 2.73 4.46 2.44
Goal-Goal 2.62 2.84 3.76
No Goal 3.08 5.62 2.01
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.19 4.43 3.14
NG+Un 2.5 3.2 5.62 2.1



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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