Valladolid Vs Malaga

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Valladolid and Malaga for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.78 3.43 5.07 2.34 1.63
Estim 1.81 4 5.08 2.14 1.88
Value % -0.93 -4.15 -0.04 3.99 -8.16



Basic Data and latest results


Valladolid basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 4 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 1 2
At Home 2 0 1 67 2 1 0 3




Valladolid latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Oct Ponferradina A 2 2 D O Gg
26 Sep Alcorcon H 2 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Girona A 0 1 L U Ng
12 Sep Tenerife H 0 2 L U Ng
05 Sep Burgos A 0 3 L O Ng
29 Aug Lugo A 2 0 W U Ng
20 Aug Zaragoza H 2 0 W U Ng
15 Aug Las Palmas A 1 1 D U Gg



Malaga basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 4 3 2 4
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 2 1
At Away 0 1 3 8 2 4 3 1




Malaga latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Oct Fuenlabrada H 1 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Sp Gijon A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Ponferradina A 0 4 L O Ng
12 Sep Girona H 2 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Almeria A 0 2 L U Ng
27 Aug Alcorcon H 1 0 W U Ng
22 Aug Ibiza A 2 2 D O Gg
16 Aug Mirandes H 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Valladolid is -0.224 and for the Malaga is -0.021.
  • The home dynamic for the Valladolid is 0.32 and the dynamic as a guest for the Malaga is -0.955.
  • The offensive ability for the Valladolid is -0.444 and for the Malaga is 0.07.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Valladolid is -0.253 and for the Malaga is 0.81.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Valladolid 17% 34% 26% 22%
Malaga 42% 35% 16% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.48 goals and Malaga to score 0.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Valladolid to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.54 goals and Malaga to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Valladolid to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.89 0-1 3.65
1 4.95 2-3 1.96
2 3.89 4+ 4.67
3 3.95 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 6.9 Un 1.5 3.65
5 18.52 Ov 2.5 2.14
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.88
Gg 2.08 Ov 3.5 4.67
NoG 1.93 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.94 3.81 4.49
2-3 goals 1.72 4.29 5.37
4+ goals 1.86 3.69 5.22
Ov 1.5 1.76 4.09 5.32
Un 1.5 1.94 3.81 4.49
Ov 2.5 1.55 8.05 4.32
Un 2.5 2.12 2.78 5.97
Ov 3.5 1.86 3.69 5.22
Un 3.5 1.79 4.1 5.03
Goal-Goal 2.31 2.72 5.01
No Goal 1.5 7.18 5.12
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.74 6.24 3.77
NG+Un 2.5 1.64 7.18 4.63



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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