Walsall Vs Salford

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Walsall and Salford for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.29 3.22 2.28 2.19 1.7
Estim 2.53 3.61 3.05 2.3 1.77
Value % 9.13 -3.36 -11.07 -2.18 -2.33



Basic Data and latest results


Walsall basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 5 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 3 0
At Home 2 1 2 47 5 4 3 2




Walsall latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Exeter A 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Bristol Rvs H 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Newport County A 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Mansfield H 3 1 W O Gg
04 Sep Bradford A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Stevenage H 1 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Hartlepool A 0 2 L U Ng
17 Aug Scunthorpe H 1 1 D U Gg



Salford basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 3 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 1 2
At Away 1 0 3 25 3 3 2 2




Salford latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Colchester A 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Northampton H 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Tranmere A 0 2 L U Ng
11 Sep Bradford H 1 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Carlisle A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Aug Newport County H 3 0 W O Ng
21 Aug Swindon H 0 1 L U Ng
17 Aug Crawley Town A 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Walsall is -0.071 and for the Salford is 0.242.
  • The home dynamic for the Walsall is 0.016 and the dynamic as a guest for the Salford is -0.472.
  • The offensive ability for the Walsall is 1 and for the Salford is 0.497.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Walsall is -0.682 and for the Salford is 0.81.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Walsall 30% 31% 26% 13%
Salford 32% 37% 21% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Walsall to score 1 goals and Salford to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Walsall to score 1.22 goals and Salford to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.42 0-1 3.28
1 4.78 2-3 2.02
2 3.83 4+ 4.95
3 4.27 Ov 1.5 1.43
4 7.46 Un 1.5 3.28
5 18.52 Ov 2.5 2.29
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.77
Gg 2.1 Ov 3.5 4.95
NoG 1.9 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.08 3.18 2.77
2-3 goals 2.22 4.34 3.13
4+ goals 2.77 2.97 3.31
Ov 1.5 2.35 3.83 3.18
Un 1.5 3.08 3.18 2.77
Ov 2.5 2.07 6.41 2.78
Un 2.5 3.08 2.7 3.29
Ov 3.5 2.77 2.97 3.31
Un 3.5 2.48 3.81 2.99
Goal-Goal 2.81 2.62 3.82
No Goal 2.33 5.47 2.57
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.14 5.34 2.9
NG+Un 2.5 2.46 5.47 2.63



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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