Wycombe Vs Gillingham

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Wycombe and Gillingham for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.62 3.98 5.26 1.87 1.97
Estim 2.12 3.68 3.91 2.23 1.81
Value % -14.56 2.05 6.56 -8.63 4.49



Basic Data and latest results


Wycombe basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 4 5 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 2 1
At Home 4 0 0 100 4 3 3 1




Wycombe latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Morecambe H 4 3 W O Gg
28 Sep Shrewsbury A 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Milton Keynes Dons A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Charlton H 2 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Oxford A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Sunderland A 1 3 L O Gg
21 Aug Lincoln H 1 0 W U Ng
17 Aug Wigan A 1 1 D U Gg



Gillingham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 5 1 5
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 0 3
At Away 1 3 2 33 5 5 1 5




Gillingham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Wigan H 0 2 L U Ng
28 Sep Cambridge A 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Oxford A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Sep Charlton H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Milton Keynes Dons H 1 4 L O Gg
11 Sep Burton A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Shrewsbury A 1 2 L O Gg
21 Aug Morecambe H 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Wycombe is 0.366 and for the Gillingham is -0.232.
  • The home dynamic for the Wycombe is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Gillingham is -0.303.
  • The offensive ability for the Wycombe is 0.033 and for the Gillingham is 0.433.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Wycombe is -0.657 and for the Gillingham is -0.32.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Wycombe 20% 39% 24% 17%
Gillingham 37% 35% 19% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.82 goals and Gillingham to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Wycombe to win by 1.05 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.38 goals and Gillingham to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Wycombe to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.7 0-1 3.48
1 4.67 2-3 1.98
2 3.77 4+ 4.81
3 4.18 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 7.14 Un 1.5 3.48
5 18.87 Ov 2.5 2.24
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.81
Gg 1.98 Ov 3.5 4.81
NoG 2.03 Un 3.5 1.26


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.99 3.93 4.1
2-3 goals 2.14 3.65 3.88
4+ goals 2.29 3.35 3.78
Ov 1.5 2.18 3.56 3.85
Un 1.5 1.99 3.93 4.1
Ov 2.5 1.88 7.21 3.04
Un 2.5 2.37 2.62 5.11
Ov 3.5 2.29 3.35 3.78
Un 3.5 2.08 3.75 3.95
Goal-Goal 2.87 2.53 3.89
No Goal 1.67 6.75 3.94
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.09 5.94 2.83
NG+Un 2.5 1.78 6.75 3.83



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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