Zaragoza Vs Huesca

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Huesca for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.44 2.99 3.16 2.57 1.52
Estim 2.79 3.46 2.82 2.46 1.68
Value % -5.14 -4.54 3.82 1.74 -6.27



Basic Data and latest results


Zaragoza basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 4 5 1 5
Last 3 0 3 0 33 2 2 0 3
At Home 0 3 1 25 1 2 0 4




Zaragoza latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Oviedo H 0 0 D U Ng
26 Sep Lugo A 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Sociedad B H 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Fuenlabrada A 1 1 D U Gg
05 Sep Alcorcon A 2 1 W O Gg
30 Aug Cartagena H 0 1 L U Ng
20 Aug Valladolid A 0 2 L U Ng
13 Aug Ibiza H 0 0 D U Ng



Huesca basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 5 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 1 1 2
At Away 1 0 2 33 3 2 2 1




Huesca latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Oct Tenerife H 1 2 L O Gg
24 Sep Sociedad B A 2 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Fuenlabrada H 0 0 D U Ng
13 Sep Lugo A 2 3 L O Gg
06 Sep Oviedo H 1 2 L O Gg
27 Aug Las Palmas A 1 2 L O Gg
22 Aug Cartagena H 2 0 W U Ng
13 Aug Eibar H 2 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Zaragoza is 0.038 and for the Huesca is -0.653.
  • The home dynamic for the Zaragoza is -0.24 and the dynamic as a guest for the Huesca is -0.225.
  • The offensive ability for the Zaragoza is 0 and for the Huesca is 0.497.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Zaragoza is -0.545 and for the Huesca is 0.32.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Zaragoza 30% 38% 23% 10%
Huesca 32% 34% 23% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.12 goals and Huesca to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.12 goals and Huesca to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.31 0-1 3.11
1 4.44 2-3 2
2 3.68 4+ 5.59
3 4.41 Ov 1.5 1.47
4 8.13 Un 1.5 3.11
5 21.74 Ov 2.5 2.46
6+ 100 Un 2.5 1.68
Gg 2.11 Ov 3.5 5.59
NoG 1.9 Un 3.5 1.22


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.64 3.32 3.13
2-3 goals 2.74 3.87 2.65
4+ goals 3.31 2.89 2.84
Ov 1.5 2.87 3.55 2.7
Un 1.5 2.64 3.32 3.13
Ov 2.5 2.49 6.55 2.24
Un 2.5 3.05 2.63 3.43
Ov 3.5 3.31 2.89 2.84
Un 3.5 2.7 3.63 2.82
Goal-Goal 3.58 2.48 3.15
No Goal 2.33 5.43 2.58
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.61 5.55 2.29
NG+Un 2.5 2.38 5.43 2.69



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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