Brescia Vs Lecce

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Brescia and Lecce for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.41 3.39 2.77 1.76 2.08
Estim 2.31 3.72 3.36 2.15 1.87
Value % 1.8 -2.62 -6.34 -10.31 5.4



Basic Data and latest results


Brescia basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 5 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 1 2
At Home 2 1 1 58 4 3 3 1




Brescia latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Cremonese H 1 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Perugia A 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Como H 2 4 L O Gg
25 Sep Ascoli A 3 2 W O Gg
20 Sep Frosinone A 2 2 D O Gg
17 Sep Crotone H 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Alessandria A 3 1 W O Gg
27 Aug Cosenza H 5 1 W O Gg



Lecce basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 5 3 4 2
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 1 1 2
At Away 2 2 1 53 3 3 3 2




Lecce latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Perugia H 0 0 D U Ng
16 Oct Ascoli A 1 1 D U Gg
01 Oct Monza H 3 0 W O Ng
25 Sep Cittadella A 2 1 W O Gg
21 Sep Crotone A 3 0 W O Ng
18 Sep Alessandria H 3 2 W O Gg
10 Sep Benevento A 0 0 D U Ng
29 Aug Como H 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Brescia is -0.12 and for the Lecce is 0.584.
  • The home dynamic for the Brescia is 0.255 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lecce is 0.394.
  • The offensive ability for the Brescia is 0.552 and for the Lecce is 0.442.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Brescia is -0.525 and for the Lecce is 0.217.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Brescia 23% 36% 26% 15%
Lecce 35% 33% 20% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brescia to score 1.43 goals and Lecce to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brescia to score 1.33 goals and Lecce to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.5 0-1 3.58
1 5.03 2-3 2.03
2 3.92 4+ 4.39
3 4.2 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 6.8 Un 1.5 3.58
5 15.87 Ov 2.5 2.15
6+ 55.56 Un 2.5 1.87
Gg 1.99 Ov 3.5 4.39
NoG 2.01 Un 3.5 1.3


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.27 3.49 3.67
2-3 goals 2.15 4.21 3.35
4+ goals 2.81 3.17 3.04
Ov 1.5 2.33 3.81 3.25
Un 1.5 2.27 3.49 3.67
Ov 2.5 2.13 6.47 2.66
Un 2.5 2.5 2.71 4.34
Ov 3.5 2.81 3.17 3.04
Un 3.5 2.19 3.92 3.46
Goal-Goal 3.01 2.66 3.42
No Goal 1.87 6.21 3.29
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.31 5.36 2.63
NG+Un 2.5 1.95 6.21 3.39



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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