Crotone Vs Benevento

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Crotone and Benevento for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.63 3.31 2.58 1.83 1.99
Estim 2.73 3.57 2.82 2.14 1.88
Value % -1.39 -2.2 -3.3 -7.92 2.94



Basic Data and latest results


Crotone basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 3 6 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 2 1
At Home 1 3 1 40 4 5 4 1




Crotone latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
22 Oct Alessandria A 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Pisa H 2 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Ascoli H 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Cosenza A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Sep Lecce H 0 3 L O Ng
17 Sep Brescia A 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Reggina H 1 1 D U Gg
29 Aug Cittadella A 2 4 L O Gg



Benevento basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 3 0 67 5 3 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 1 1 2
At Away 1 2 1 42 3 3 0 4




Benevento latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Cosenza H 3 0 W O Ng
17 Oct Cremonese A 1 1 D U Gg
03 Oct Perugia H 0 0 D U Ng
25 Sep Como A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Sep Cittadella H 4 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Ascoli A 2 0 W U Ng
10 Sep Lecce H 0 0 D U Ng
29 Aug Parma A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Crotone is -0.531 and for the Benevento is 0.44.
  • The home dynamic for the Crotone is 0.051 and the dynamic as a guest for the Benevento is 0.091.
  • The offensive ability for the Crotone is -0.229 and for the Benevento is 0.505.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Crotone is -1 and for the Benevento is 0.191.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Crotone 26% 35% 28% 11%
Benevento 27% 38% 21% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.3 goals and Benevento to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.22 goals and Benevento to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.08 0-1 3.73
1 5.08 2-3 1.96
2 3.76 4+ 4.52
3 4.08 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 6.8 Un 1.5 3.73
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.15
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.87
Gg 1.86 Ov 3.5 4.52
NoG 2.16 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.82 3.77 2.63
2-3 goals 2.46 3.76 3.06
4+ goals 3.51 3.07 2.57
Ov 1.5 2.7 3.52 2.89
Un 1.5 2.82 3.77 2.63
Ov 2.5 2.37 6.47 2.37
Un 2.5 3.16 2.58 3.38
Ov 3.5 3.51 3.07 2.57
Un 3.5 2.57 3.76 2.9
Goal-Goal 3.18 2.59 3.34
No Goal 2.35 6.51 2.38
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.38 5.58 2.5
NG+Un 2.5 2.36 6.51 2.52



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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