Halifax Vs Dag And Red

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Halifax and Dag and Red for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.61 3.52 2.53 1.79 2.03
Estim 1.89 4.13 4.39 1.96 2.04
Value % 14.6 -4.2 -16.75 -4.85 -0.24



Basic Data and latest results


Halifax basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 4 2 2 4
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 1 2
At Home 5 0 1 83 6 3 4 2




Halifax latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Solihull A 0 1 L U Ng
09 Oct Weymouth H 2 0 W U Ng
05 Oct Notts County H 3 2 W O Gg
02 Oct Barnet A 0 0 D U Ng
25 Sep Aldershot A 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Stockport H 3 0 W O Ng
14 Sep Boreham Wood A 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Southend H 3 1 W O Gg



Dag and Red basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 0 4 33 3 5 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 2 1 2
At Away 3 0 3 50 3 5 2 4




Dag and Red latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Southend H 3 0 W O Ng
09 Oct Boreham Wood A 0 2 L U Ng
05 Oct Woking A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Altrincham H 2 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Solihull H 5 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Wrexham A 0 1 L U Ng
14 Sep Weymouth H 4 2 W O Gg
11 Sep King’s Lynn A 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Halifax is 0.455 and for the Dag and Red is -0.416.
  • The home dynamic for the Halifax is 0.788 and the dynamic as a guest for the Dag and Red is 0.192.
  • The offensive ability for the Halifax is 0.13 and for the Dag and Red is -0.4.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Halifax is 0.525 and for the Dag and Red is -0.539.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Halifax 23% 23% 26% 27%
Dag and Red 37% 37% 18% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.32 goals and Dag and Red to score 1.35 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.56 goals and Dag and Red to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Halifax to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.49 0-1 3.83
1 5.75 2-3 2.06
2 4.39 4+ 3.95
3 3.89 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.1 Un 1.5 3.83
5 14.71 Ov 2.5 1.96
6+ 47.62 Un 2.5 2.04
Gg 2.08 Ov 3.5 3.95
NoG 1.93 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3 3 3
2-3 goals 1.64 5.57 4.75
4+ goals 1.73 3.67 6.66
Ov 1.5 1.67 4.73 5.27
Un 1.5 3 3 3
Ov 2.5 1.49 7.39 5.2
Un 2.5 2.63 2.81 3.79
Ov 3.5 1.73 3.67 6.66
Un 3.5 1.95 4.29 3.95
Goal-Goal 1.97 3.08 6
No Goal 1.82 5.97 3.53
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.61 5.7 4.91
NG+Un 2.5 2.16 5.97 3.12



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *