King’s Lynn Vs Boreham Wood

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between King’s Lynn and Boreham Wood for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.95 3.89 1.81 1.8 2.02
Estim 4.26 3.76 2 1.84 2.19
Value % -1.84 0.89 -5.25 -1.21 -3.84



Basic Data and latest results


King’s Lynn basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 3 6 2 4
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 0 3
At Home 0 1 5 6 2 6 1 5




King’s Lynn latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Torquay A 0 2 L U Ng
09 Oct Solihull H 0 1 L U Ng
05 Oct Barnet H 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Maidenhead A 3 2 W O Gg
28 Sep Altrincham A 1 4 L O Gg
25 Sep Wealdstone H 0 1 L U Ng
11 Sep Dag and Red H 1 2 L O Gg
04 Sep Eastleigh A 3 3 D O Gg



Boreham Wood basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 6 4 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 1 1 2
At Away 3 1 2 56 6 4 3 3




Boreham Wood latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Chesterfield A 1 2 L O Gg
09 Oct Dag and Red H 2 0 W U Ng
05 Oct Torquay H 2 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Eastleigh A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Yeovil H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Solihull A 1 3 L O Gg
14 Sep Halifax H 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Bromley A 3 2 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the King’s Lynn is -0.77 and for the Boreham Wood is 0.104.
  • The home dynamic for the King’s Lynn is -0.843 and the dynamic as a guest for the Boreham Wood is 0.444.
  • The offensive ability for the King’s Lynn is -0.256 and for the Boreham Wood is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the King’s Lynn is -1 and for the Boreham Wood is -0.157.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
King’s Lynn 25% 49% 15% 11%
Boreham Wood 16% 32% 28% 23%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 0.96 goals and Boreham Wood to score 1.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team Boreham Wood to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 1.11 goals and Boreham Wood to score 1.58 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the guest team Boreham Wood to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 23.81 0-1 4.9
1 6.17 2-3 1.94
2 3.95 4+ 3.55
3 3.82 Ov 1.5 1.25
4 5.24 Un 1.5 4.9
5 15.15 Ov 2.5 1.84
6+ 40 Un 2.5 2.19
Gg 1.6 Ov 3.5 3.55
NoG 2.66 Un 3.5 1.39


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.55 4.86 2.49
2-3 goals 5.66 3.28 1.93
4+ goals 4.41 4.15 1.88
Ov 1.5 5.14 3.54 1.91
Un 1.5 2.55 4.86 2.49
Ov 2.5 4.18 8 1.57
Un 2.5 4.35 2.3 2.99
Ov 3.5 4.41 4.15 1.88
Un 3.5 4.2 3.61 2.06
Goal-Goal 5.53 2.78 2.18
No Goal 3.08 8.95 1.77
G-G+Ov 2.5 4.14 6.88 1.63
NG+Un 2.5 2.86 8.95 1.96



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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