Lazio Vs Fiorentina

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Lazio and Fiorentina for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.96 3.67 3.9 1.72 2.2
Estim 2.6 2.97 3.6 2.35 1.74
Value % -12.56 6.42 2.14 -15.59 12.02



Basic Data and latest results


Lazio basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 6 5 1
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 3 0
At Home 3 1 0 83 4 4 4 0




Lazio latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Verona A 1 4 L O Gg
16 Oct Inter H 3 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Bologna A 0 3 L O Ng
26 Sep Roma H 3 2 W O Gg
23 Sep Torino A 1 1 D U Gg
19 Sep Cagliari H 2 2 D O Gg
12 Sep Milan A 0 2 L U Ng
28 Aug Spezia H 6 1 W O Gg



Fiorentina basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 5 4 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 2 1
At Away 3 0 2 60 4 4 3 2




Fiorentina latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Cagliari H 3 0 W O Ng
18 Oct Venezia A 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Napoli H 1 2 L O Gg
26 Sep Udinese A 1 0 W U Ng
21 Sep Inter H 1 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Genoa A 2 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Atalanta A 2 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Torino H 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Lazio is -0.148 and for the Fiorentina is -0.096.
  • The home dynamic for the Lazio is 0.765 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fiorentina is 0.333.
  • The offensive ability for the Lazio is 0.578 and for the Fiorentina is 0.474.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Lazio is -1 and for the Fiorentina is -0.157.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Lazio 34% 11% 44% 10%
Fiorentina 47% 7% 35% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lazio to score 1.74 goals and Fiorentina to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.8 goals in the game and the home team Lazio to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lazio to score 1.31 goals and Fiorentina to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 6.17 0-1 4.24
1 13.51 2-3 2.04
2 2.97 4+ 3.69
3 6.49 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 5.71 Un 1.5 4.24
5 11.76 Ov 2.5 2.35
6+ 90.91 Un 2.5 1.75
Gg 2.9 Ov 3.5 3.69
NoG 1.53 Un 3.5 1.38


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 4.54 1.46 10.73
2-3 goals 1.7 70.14 2.52
4+ goals 6.16 1.62 4.52
Ov 1.5 2.29 4.38 2.99
Un 1.5 4.54 1.46 10.73
Ov 2.5 3.46 2.54 3.15
Un 2.5 2.19 3.39 4.04
Ov 3.5 6.16 1.62 4.52
Un 3.5 2.13 4.3 3.35
Goal-Goal 4.73 1.98 3.52
No Goal 2.09 4.03 3.65
G-G+Ov 2.5 4.63 2.02 3.45
NG+Un 2.5 2.16 4.03 3.99



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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