Moreirense Vs Pacos Ferreira

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Moreirense and Pacos Ferreira for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.34 3.24 2.99 2.13 1.75
Estim 4.05 3.82 2.04 2.4 1.71
Value % -18.04 -4.69 15.57 -5.28 1.34



Basic Data and latest results


Moreirense basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 3 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 1 2 1 2
At Home 1 1 2 33 4 4 4 0




Moreirense latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Sp Lisbon A 0 1 L U Ng
01 Oct Maritimo A 0 0 D U Ng
25 Sep Arouca H 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Porto A 0 5 L O Ng
12 Sep Famalicao H 2 2 D O Gg
27 Aug Belenenses A 1 1 D U Gg
20 Aug Sp Braga H 2 3 L O Gg
15 Aug Santa Clara A 2 2 D O Gg



Pacos Ferreira basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 4 3 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 2 2 1
At Away 1 1 2 33 3 3 2 2




Pacos Ferreira latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Arouca H 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Porto A 1 2 L O Gg
27 Sep Belenenses H 2 2 D O Gg
19 Sep Vizela A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Sp Braga H 0 0 D U Ng
29 Aug Portimonense A 1 0 W U Ng
23 Aug Estoril H 1 3 L O Gg
16 Aug Boavista A 0 3 L O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Moreirense is -0.359 and for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.136.
  • The home dynamic for the Moreirense is -0.153 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.253.
  • The offensive ability for the Moreirense is -0.318 and for the Pacos Ferreira is 0.021.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Moreirense is -0.552 and for the Pacos Ferreira is 0.13.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Moreirense 40% 38% 16% 6%
Pacos Ferreira 30% 20% 36% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Moreirense to score 1.28 goals and Pacos Ferreira to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Moreirense to score 0.88 goals and Pacos Ferreira to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the guest team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 8.2 0-1 3.15
1 5.13 2-3 1.96
2 3.75 4+ 5.75
3 4.13 Ov 1.5 1.46
4 8.26 Un 1.5 3.15
5 22.73 Ov 2.5 2.4
6+ 111.11 Un 2.5 1.71
Gg 2.39 Ov 3.5 5.75
NoG 1.72 Un 3.5 1.21


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.76 2.6 3.96
2-3 goals 5.25 6.7 1.51
4+ goals 4.97 2.68 2.35
Ov 1.5 5.17 4.84 1.67
Un 1.5 2.76 2.6 3.96
Ov 2.5 4.89 6.4 1.56
Un 2.5 3.6 2.95 2.61
Ov 3.5 4.97 2.68 2.35
Un 3.5 3.9 4.17 1.99
Goal-Goal 6.33 2.96 1.98
No Goal 3.22 4.77 2.09
G-G+Ov 2.5 5.18 5.26 1.62
NG+Un 2.5 3.14 4.77 2.27



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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