Notts County Vs Bromley

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Notts County and Bromley for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.95 3.56 3.57 1.79 2.03
Estim 2.65 3.72 2.84 2.04 1.96
Value % -13.55 -1.21 7.2 -6.85 1.76



Basic Data and latest results


Notts County basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 5 4 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Home 4 1 1 72 6 5 4 2




Notts County latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Stockport H 2 1 W O Gg
09 Oct Yeovil A 2 0 W U Ng
05 Oct Halifax A 2 3 L O Gg
02 Oct Woking H 1 4 L O Gg
25 Sep Altrincham A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Maidenhead H 1 0 W U Ng
14 Sep Wealdstone H 3 2 W O Gg
11 Sep Weymouth A 1 1 D U Gg



Bromley basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 6 0 0 100 6 2 3 3
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 1 2 1
At Away 2 1 1 58 4 3 3 1




Bromley latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Aldershot A 3 2 W O Gg
09 Oct Torquay H 2 0 W U Ng
05 Oct Weymouth H 3 0 W O Ng
28 Sep Grimsby H 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Dover Athletic A 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Barnet H 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Boreham Wood H 2 3 L O Gg
04 Sep Chesterfield A 2 2 D O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Notts County is -0.072 and for the Bromley is 1.
  • The home dynamic for the Notts County is 0.545 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bromley is 0.475.
  • The offensive ability for the Notts County is 0.641 and for the Bromley is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Notts County is -0.22 and for the Bromley is 0.504.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Notts County 27% 34% 23% 16%
Bromley 28% 35% 23% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.62 goals and Bromley to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Notts County to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.28 goals and Bromley to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.16 0-1 3.77
1 5.29 2-3 2.05
2 4.07 4+ 4.03
3 4.13 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.41 Un 1.5 3.77
5 14.29 Ov 2.5 2.04
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 1.96
Gg 1.9 Ov 3.5 4.03
NoG 2.1 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.79 3.49 2.82
2-3 goals 2.55 4.14 2.73
4+ goals 2.7 3.26 3.1
Ov 1.5 2.6 3.79 2.84
Un 1.5 2.79 3.49 2.82
Ov 2.5 2.25 6.45 2.5
Un 2.5 3.19 2.63 3.25
Ov 3.5 2.7 3.26 3.1
Un 3.5 2.63 3.88 2.76
Goal-Goal 3.03 2.71 3.32
No Goal 2.32 6.26 2.44
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.35 5.36 2.58
NG+Un 2.5 2.46 6.26 2.5



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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