Wealdstone Vs Grimsby

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Wealdstone and Grimsby for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 4.36 3.73 1.73 1.86 1.94
Estim 3.07 3.62 2.51 2 2
Value % 9.64 0.81 -17.96 -3.76 -1.55



Basic Data and latest results


Wealdstone basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 4 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 2 1 2
At Home 1 3 2 33 4 3 3 3




Wealdstone latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Weymouth A 1 1 D U Gg
09 Oct Eastleigh H 1 2 L O Gg
05 Oct Solihull H 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Torquay A 0 5 L O Ng
25 Sep King’s Lynn A 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Aldershot H 2 2 D O Gg
14 Sep Notts County A 2 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Altrincham H 1 0 W U Ng



Grimsby basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 3 3 3
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 1 1 2
At Away 3 2 1 61 5 4 3 3




Grimsby latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Yeovil H 2 0 W U Ng
09 Oct Woking A 1 0 W U Ng
05 Oct Altrincham A 3 2 W O Gg
02 Oct Dover Athletic H 6 0 W O Ng
28 Sep Bromley A 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Maidenhead A 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Eastleigh H 2 0 W U Ng
14 Sep Wrexham H 3 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Wealdstone is -0.378 and for the Grimsby is 0.536.
  • The home dynamic for the Wealdstone is -0.161 and the dynamic as a guest for the Grimsby is 0.293.
  • The offensive ability for the Wealdstone is 0.193 and for the Grimsby is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Wealdstone is -0.22 and for the Grimsby is 0.278.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Wealdstone 24% 43% 21% 12%
Grimsby 24% 34% 25% 17%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 0.87 goals and Grimsby to score 1.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the guest team Grimsby to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.21 goals and Grimsby to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 16.95 0-1 4.08
1 5.38 2-3 1.99
2 3.92 4+ 3.95
3 4.03 Ov 1.5 1.32
4 6.02 Un 1.5 4.08
5 15.15 Ov 2.5 2
6+ 47.62 Un 2.5 2
Gg 1.74 Ov 3.5 3.95
NoG 2.35 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.33 4.15 3.02
2-3 goals 3.33 3.49 2.42
4+ goals 3.61 3.47 2.3
Ov 1.5 3.42 3.48 2.38
Un 1.5 2.33 4.15 3.02
Ov 2.5 2.95 6.86 1.94
Un 2.5 3.21 2.46 3.55
Ov 3.5 3.61 3.47 2.3
Un 3.5 2.92 3.68 2.59
Goal-Goal 4.08 2.65 2.65
No Goal 2.3 7.22 2.34
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.06 5.9 1.99
NG+Un 2.5 2.28 7.22 2.52



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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