Alcorcon Vs Ibiza

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Alcorcon and Ibiza for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.83 3.02 2.53 2.4 1.58
Estim 2.66 3.46 2.99 2.49 1.67
Value % 2.26 -4.21 -6.08 -1.51 -3.41



Basic Data and latest results


Alcorcon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 3 5 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 2 1
At Home 1 1 4 22 4 5 4 2




Alcorcon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Las Palmas A 0 3 L O Ng
20 Oct Leganes H 3 3 D O Gg
16 Oct Sp Gijon A 0 1 L U Ng
10 Oct Burgos H 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Sociedad B H 1 4 L O Gg
26 Sep Valladolid A 0 2 L U Ng
17 Sep Almeria H 0 4 L O Ng
11 Sep Mirandes A 3 1 W O Gg



Ibiza basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Away 1 3 2 33 5 5 3 3




Ibiza latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Fuenlabrada H 3 1 W O Gg
20 Oct Valladolid A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Mirandes H 0 2 L U Ng
10 Oct Cartagena A 1 5 L O Gg
03 Oct Eibar A 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Burgos H 2 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Oviedo H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Las Palmas A 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Alcorcon is -0.596 and for the Ibiza is -0.148.
  • The home dynamic for the Alcorcon is -0.607 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ibiza is -0.192.
  • The offensive ability for the Alcorcon is -0.191 and for the Ibiza is 0.597.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Alcorcon is -0.547 and for the Ibiza is -0.674.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Alcorcon 30% 37% 23% 10%
Ibiza 34% 35% 22% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Alcorcon to score 1.03 goals and Ibiza to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Alcorcon to score 1.14 goals and Ibiza to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10 0-1 3.05
1 4.39 2-3 2.02
2 3.69 4+ 5.65
3 4.44 Ov 1.5 1.49
4 8.13 Un 1.5 3.05
5 22.73 Ov 2.5 2.49
6+ 100 Un 2.5 1.67
Gg 2.14 Ov 3.5 5.65
NoG 1.88 Un 3.5 1.21


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.67 3.28 3.12
2-3 goals 2.56 3.82 2.88
4+ goals 3 2.95 3.05
Ov 1.5 2.66 3.54 2.93
Un 1.5 2.67 3.28 3.12
Ov 2.5 2.28 6.7 2.42
Un 2.5 2.99 2.6 3.54
Ov 3.5 3 2.95 3.05
Un 3.5 2.6 3.58 2.97
Goal-Goal 3.32 2.46 3.42
No Goal 2.27 5.33 2.69
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.4 5.63 2.47
NG+Un 2.5 2.35 5.33 2.78



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *