Almeria Vs Leganes

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Almeria and Leganes for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.79 3.5 4.52 2.1 1.76
Estim 1.89 3.89 4.67 2.15 1.87
Value % -2.96 -2.86 -0.71 -1.11 -3.34



Basic Data and latest results


Almeria basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 6 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 2 1
At Home 4 1 0 87 5 4 3 2




Almeria latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Mirandes A 4 1 W O Gg
21 Oct Sociedad B H 3 1 W O Gg
15 Oct Eibar A 0 1 L U Ng
09 Oct Las Palmas H 1 1 D U Gg
04 Oct Girona A 2 1 W O Gg
24 Sep Tenerife H 3 1 W O Gg
17 Sep Alcorcon A 4 0 W O Ng
12 Sep Ponferradina A 0 1 L U Ng



Leganes basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 5 6 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Away 1 2 3 28 5 6 4 2




Leganes latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Tenerife H 1 2 L O Gg
20 Oct Alcorcon A 3 3 D O Gg
17 Oct Valladolid H 0 2 L U Ng
10 Oct Fuenlabrada A 1 2 L O Gg
03 Oct Lugo H 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Mirandes A 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Amorebieta H 1 0 W U Ng
10 Sep Sp Gijon A 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Almeria is 0.579 and for the Leganes is -0.393.
  • The home dynamic for the Almeria is 0.761 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leganes is -0.298.
  • The offensive ability for the Almeria is 0.591 and for the Leganes is 0.597.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Almeria is -1 and for the Leganes is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Almeria 18% 34% 27% 21%
Leganes 40% 36% 18% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Almeria to score 1.56 goals and Leganes to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Almeria to win by 0.75 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Almeria to score 1.5 goals and Leganes to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Almeria to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.7 0-1 3.65
1 4.98 2-3 1.96
2 3.85 4+ 4.61
3 3.98 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 6.85 Un 1.5 3.65
5 17.86 Ov 2.5 2.14
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.87
Gg 2.02 Ov 3.5 4.61
NoG 1.98 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.03 3.75 4.15
2-3 goals 1.81 4.15 4.87
4+ goals 1.94 3.5 5.05
Ov 1.5 1.84 3.94 4.92
Un 1.5 2.03 3.75 4.15
Ov 2.5 1.61 7.55 4.03
Un 2.5 2.23 2.72 5.45
Ov 3.5 1.94 3.5 5.05
Un 3.5 1.88 4.01 4.59
Goal-Goal 2.38 2.68 4.82
No Goal 1.57 6.93 4.56
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.79 6.02 3.62
NG+Un 2.5 1.71 6.93 4.19



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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