Atalanta Vs Lazio

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Atalanta and Lazio for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.95 3.92 3.67 1.6 2.38
Estim 2.24 3.18 4.17 2.29 1.77
Value % -6.64 5.94 -3.27 -18.83 14.48



Basic Data and latest results


Atalanta basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 6 6 5 1
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 3 2 1
At Home 1 2 2 33 4 4 3 2




Atalanta latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Oct Sampdoria A 3 1 W O Gg
24 Oct Udinese H 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Empoli A 4 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Milan H 2 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Inter A 2 2 D O Gg
21 Sep Sassuolo H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Salernitana A 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Fiorentina H 1 2 L O Gg



Lazio basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 5 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Away 1 1 3 27 3 5 3 2




Lazio latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Oct Fiorentina H 1 0 W U Ng
24 Oct Verona A 1 4 L O Gg
16 Oct Inter H 3 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Bologna A 0 3 L O Ng
26 Sep Roma H 3 2 W O Gg
23 Sep Torino A 1 1 D U Gg
19 Sep Cagliari H 2 2 D O Gg
12 Sep Milan A 0 2 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Atalanta is 0.404 and for the Lazio is 0.17.
  • The home dynamic for the Atalanta is -0.333 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lazio is -0.434.
  • The offensive ability for the Atalanta is 1 and for the Lazio is 0.631.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Atalanta is -1 and for the Lazio is -0.533.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Atalanta 30% 14% 43% 14%
Lazio 50% 8% 33% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atalanta to score 1.83 goals and Lazio to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.97 goals in the game and the home team Atalanta to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atalanta to score 1.42 goals and Lazio to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Atalanta to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 6.76 0-1 4.15
1 10.75 2-3 2
2 3.1 4+ 3.86
3 5.65 Ov 1.5 1.32
4 6.06 Un 1.5 4.15
5 12.2 Ov 2.5 2.29
6+ 83.33 Un 2.5 1.77
Gg 2.85 Ov 3.5 3.86
NoG 1.54 Un 3.5 1.35


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.54 1.63 9.64
2-3 goals 1.56 45.45 2.96
4+ goals 4.39 1.68 5.63
Ov 1.5 2 4.6 3.53
Un 1.5 3.54 1.63 9.64
Ov 2.5 2.63 2.83 3.76
Un 2.5 2.01 3.55 4.55
Ov 3.5 4.39 1.68 5.63
Un 3.5 1.91 4.66 3.82
Goal-Goal 3.69 2.13 3.86
No Goal 1.84 4.39 4.36
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.58 2.21 3.74
NG+Un 2.5 1.97 4.39 4.46



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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