Barnet Vs Aldershot

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Barnet and Aldershot for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.5 3.44 2.59 1.84 1.96
Estim 2.89 3.66 2.62 2.03 1.97
Value % -5.4 -1.75 -0.44 -5.09 -0.26



Basic Data and latest results


Barnet basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 4 5 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 3 0
At Home 1 2 3 28 2 5 3 3




Barnet latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Oct Stockport A 2 1 W O Gg
23 Oct Wrexham H 0 3 L O Ng
09 Oct Dover Athletic A 2 1 W O Gg
05 Oct King’s Lynn A 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Halifax H 0 0 D U Ng
25 Sep Weymouth H 3 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Bromley A 0 2 L U Ng
14 Sep Chesterfield A 2 4 L O Gg



Aldershot basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 3 6 3 3
Last 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 1 2
At Away 2 1 3 39 4 6 4 2




Aldershot latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Oct Weymouth H 0 2 L U Ng
23 Oct Bromley H 2 3 L O Gg
09 Oct Stockport A 0 1 L U Ng
05 Oct Dover Athletic A 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Halifax H 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Wealdstone A 2 2 D O Gg
14 Sep Southend A 3 2 W O Gg
11 Sep Solihull H 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Barnet is 0.368 and for the Aldershot is -0.541.
  • The home dynamic for the Barnet is -0.239 and the dynamic as a guest for the Aldershot is -0.117.
  • The offensive ability for the Barnet is 0.217 and for the Aldershot is -0.202.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Barnet is -0.579 and for the Aldershot is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Barnet 26% 38% 22% 14%
Aldershot 26% 34% 24% 16%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnet to score 1.32 goals and Aldershot to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnet to score 1.23 goals and Aldershot to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.93 0-1 3.92
1 5.32 2-3 2.02
2 3.98 4+ 4.02
3 4.1 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 6.25 Un 1.5 3.92
5 14.71 Ov 2.5 2.03
6+ 47.62 Un 2.5 1.98
Gg 1.82 Ov 3.5 4.02
NoG 2.22 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.55 3.81 2.9
2-3 goals 2.96 3.78 2.51
4+ goals 3.15 3.36 2.59
Ov 1.5 3.02 3.63 2.54
Un 1.5 2.55 3.81 2.9
Ov 2.5 2.61 6.66 2.14
Un 2.5 3.22 2.56 3.35
Ov 3.5 3.15 3.36 2.59
Un 3.5 2.81 3.79 2.63
Goal-Goal 3.56 2.67 2.9
No Goal 2.35 6.73 2.35
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.71 5.64 2.21
NG+Un 2.5 2.39 6.73 2.48



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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