Barrow Vs Rochdale

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Barrow and Rochdale for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.51 3.23 2.85 2.21 1.67
Estim 2.27 3.62 3.52 2.18 1.85
Value % 4.21 -3.34 -6.68 0.62 -5.83



Basic Data and latest results


Barrow basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 6 5 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 2 1
At Home 2 4 1 48 6 6 3 4




Barrow latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Walsall A 2 2 D O Gg
19 Oct Scunthorpe H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Port Vale A 1 3 L O Gg
09 Oct Leyton Orient H 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Mansfield A 1 0 W U Ng
24 Sep Newport County H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Bradford A 1 1 D U Gg
10 Sep Colchester H 2 3 L O Gg



Rochdale basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 2 5 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 2 2 1
At Away 2 3 2 43 5 6 4 3




Rochdale latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Sutton H 3 2 W O Gg
19 Oct Salford A 0 0 D U Ng
16 Oct Swindon A 2 2 D O Gg
09 Oct Crawley Town H 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Bradford A 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Oldham H 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Mansfield A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Tranmere H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Barrow is 0.123 and for the Rochdale is -0.244.
  • The home dynamic for the Barrow is 0.034 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rochdale is 0.011.
  • The offensive ability for the Barrow is 1 and for the Rochdale is -0.459.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Barrow is -0.579 and for the Rochdale is -0.559.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Barrow 23% 37% 22% 18%
Rochdale 33% 37% 20% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.19 goals and Rochdale to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.35 goals and Rochdale to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.33 0-1 3.55
1 4.83 2-3 2.02
2 3.88 4+ 4.52
3 4.2 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 6.8 Un 1.5 3.55
5 17.54 Ov 2.5 2.18
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 1.85
Gg 1.93 Ov 3.5 4.52
NoG 2.08 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.29 3.76 3.36
2-3 goals 2.32 3.57 3.47
4+ goals 2.15 3.56 3.95
Ov 1.5 2.26 3.57 3.6
Un 1.5 2.29 3.76 3.36
Ov 2.5 1.88 7.4 3
Un 2.5 2.76 2.52 4.15
Ov 3.5 2.15 3.56 3.95
Un 3.5 2.31 3.64 3.43
Goal-Goal 2.8 2.58 3.92
No Goal 1.89 6.41 3.19
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.05 6.11 2.87
NG+Un 2.5 2.05 6.41 3.08



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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