Bielefeld Vs Mainz

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Bielefeld and Mainz for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.74 3.38 2.05 2.12 1.77
Estim 3.37 3.83 2.26 1.87 2.16
Value % 2.94 -3.48 -4.53 6.31 -10.2



Basic Data and latest results


Bielefeld basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 3 5 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Home 0 3 2 20 2 3 2 3




Bielefeld latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Dortmund H 1 3 L O Gg
17 Oct Augsburg A 1 1 D U Gg
03 Oct Leverkusen H 0 4 L O Ng
25 Sep Union Berlin A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Hoffenheim H 0 0 D U Ng
12 Sep M’gladbach A 1 3 L O Gg
28 Aug Ein Frankfurt H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Greuther Furth A 1 1 D U Gg



Mainz basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 4 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 3 3 0
At Away 1 0 3 25 2 3 1 3




Mainz latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
22 Oct Augsburg H 4 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Dortmund A 1 3 L O Gg
03 Oct Union Berlin H 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Leverkusen A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Freiburg H 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Hoffenheim A 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Greuther Furth H 3 0 W O Ng
21 Aug Bochum A 0 2 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Bielefeld is -0.798 and for the Mainz is -0.185.
  • The home dynamic for the Bielefeld is -0.607 and the dynamic as a guest for the Mainz is -0.472.
  • The offensive ability for the Bielefeld is -0.13 and for the Mainz is 0.288.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Bielefeld is -0.579 and for the Mainz is -0.322.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Bielefeld 29% 36% 23% 13%
Mainz 21% 34% 23% 22%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 0.93 goals and Mainz to score 1.43 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the guest team Mainz to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.2 goals and Mainz to score 1.47 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.27 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 16.95 0-1 4.37
1 5.88 2-3 2.06
2 4.27 4+ 3.48
3 3.98 Ov 1.5 1.3
4 5.65 Un 1.5 4.37
5 12.35 Ov 2.5 1.86
6+ 34.48 Un 2.5 2.16
Gg 1.76 Ov 3.5 3.48
NoG 2.3 Un 3.5 1.4


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.14 3.88 2.36
2-3 goals 3.21 4.04 2.27
4+ goals 3.88 3.5 2.19
Ov 1.5 3.43 3.82 2.24
Un 1.5 3.14 3.88 2.36
Ov 2.5 3.02 6.56 1.94
Un 2.5 3.86 2.59 2.82
Ov 3.5 3.88 3.5 2.19
Un 3.5 3.19 3.99 2.3
Goal-Goal 3.75 2.81 2.65
No Goal 2.95 7.36 1.9
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.96 5.45 2.09
NG+Un 2.5 2.86 7.36 2.09



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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