Bologna Vs Cagliari

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Bologna and Cagliari for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.89 3.66 4.18 1.69 2.22
Estim 1.97 3.17 5.68 2.53 1.66
Value % -2.15 4.22 -6.32 -19.65 15.2



Basic Data and latest results


Bologna basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 5 5 5 1
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Home 3 1 1 67 5 3 4 1




Bologna latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Oct Napoli A 0 3 L O Ng
23 Oct Milan H 2 4 L O Gg
17 Oct Udinese A 1 1 D U Gg
03 Oct Lazio H 3 0 W O Ng
26 Sep Empoli A 2 4 L O Gg
21 Sep Genoa H 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Inter A 1 6 L O Gg
13 Sep Verona H 1 0 W U Ng



Cagliari basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 3 6 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 3 0
At Away 0 1 3 8 2 4 3 1




Cagliari latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Oct Roma H 1 2 L O Gg
24 Oct Fiorentina A 0 3 L O Ng
17 Oct Sampdoria H 3 1 W O Gg
01 Oct Venezia H 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Napoli A 0 2 L U Ng
22 Sep Empoli H 0 2 L U Ng
19 Sep Lazio A 2 2 D O Gg
12 Sep Genoa H 2 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Bologna is -0.447 and for the Cagliari is -0.496.
  • The home dynamic for the Bologna is 0.265 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cagliari is -0.698.
  • The offensive ability for the Bologna is 0.539 and for the Cagliari is -0.09.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Bologna is -0.547 and for the Cagliari is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Bologna 27% 13% 43% 16%
Cagliari 62% 0% 32% 5%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.81 goals and Cagliari to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the home team Bologna to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.5 goals and Cagliari to score 0.82 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Bologna to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 6.06 0-1 4.02
1 11.9 2-3 1.93
2 2.81 4+ 4.26
3 6.17 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 6.71 Un 1.5 4.02
5 12.99 Ov 2.5 2.52
6+ 111.11 Un 2.5 1.65
Gg 3.55 Ov 3.5 4.26
NoG 1.39 Un 3.5 1.3


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3 1.51 249
2-3 goals 1.39 518 3.57
4+ goals 4.27 1.57 7.83
Ov 1.5 1.76 4.99 4.3
Un 1.5 3 1.51 249
Ov 2.5 2.5 2.65 4.51
Un 2.5 1.72 3.64 6.88
Ov 3.5 4.27 1.57 7.83
Un 3.5 1.69 4.62 5.25
Goal-Goal 4.95 1.87 3.81
No Goal 1.59 4.36 7.06
G-G+Ov 2.5 4.93 1.87 3.8
NG+Un 2.5 1.72 4.36 6.86



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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