Boreham Wood Vs Southend

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Boreham Wood and Southend for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.82 3.64 4.35 2.04 1.82
Estim 1.5 4.69 8.2 2.06 1.95
Value % 11.72 -6.15 -10.79 -0.48 -3.66



Basic Data and latest results


Boreham Wood basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 3 2 4
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 1 1 2
At Home 4 2 0 78 5 2 2 4




Boreham Wood latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Oct King’s Lynn A 1 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Chesterfield A 1 2 L O Gg
09 Oct Dag and Red H 2 0 W U Ng
05 Oct Torquay H 2 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Eastleigh A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Yeovil H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Solihull A 1 3 L O Gg
14 Sep Halifax H 2 2 D O Gg



Southend basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 0 5 17 2 5 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 2 2 1
At Away 1 1 4 22 2 4 2 4




Southend latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Dag and Red A 0 3 L O Ng
09 Oct Chesterfield H 0 4 L O Ng
05 Oct Eastleigh H 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Solihull A 0 2 L U Ng
18 Sep Torquay A 0 1 L U Ng
14 Sep Aldershot H 2 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Halifax A 1 3 L O Gg
04 Sep Wrexham H 2 2 D O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Boreham Wood is 0.561 and for the Southend is -0.652.
  • The home dynamic for the Boreham Wood is 0.462 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southend is -0.57.
  • The offensive ability for the Boreham Wood is 1 and for the Southend is -0.605.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Boreham Wood is 0.505 and for the Southend is -0.586.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Boreham Wood 13% 30% 28% 29%
Southend 49% 37% 10% 4%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boreham Wood to score 1.58 goals and Southend to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Boreham Wood to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boreham Wood to score 1.74 goals and Southend to score 0.7 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Boreham Wood to win by 1.04 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.87 0-1 3.91
1 5.18 2-3 1.85
2 3.86 4+ 4.9
3 3.55 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 6.76 Un 1.5 3.91
5 23.26 Ov 2.5 2.06
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.94
Gg 2.24 Ov 3.5 4.9
NoG 1.8 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.75 4.06 5.45
2-3 goals 1.41 4.96 11.04
4+ goals 1.49 4.98 7.85
Ov 1.5 1.43 4.97 9.93
Un 1.5 1.75 4.06 5.45
Ov 2.5 1.27 11.85 7.84
Un 2.5 1.82 2.99 8.58
Ov 3.5 1.49 4.98 7.85
Un 3.5 1.51 4.63 8.3
Goal-Goal 1.86 2.97 7.96
No Goal 1.3 8.81 8.41
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.4 8.22 6.02
NG+Un 2.5 1.43 8.81 6.77



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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