Cadiz Vs Mallorca

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Cadiz and Mallorca for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.59 3.03 3.15 2.7 1.48
Estim 2.07 3.73 4 2 2
Value % 9.7 -6.19 -6.75 12.96 -17.57



Basic Data and latest results


Cadiz basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 2 4 2 4
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 1 2
At Home 0 3 3 17 2 4 1 5




Cadiz latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Oct Villarreal A 3 3 D O Gg
23 Oct Alaves H 0 2 L U Ng
18 Oct Espanol A 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Valencia H 0 0 D U Ng
26 Sep Vallecano A 1 3 L O Gg
23 Sep Barcelona H 0 0 D U Ng
17 Sep Celta A 2 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Sociedad H 0 2 L U Ng



Mallorca basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 5 5 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 3 1 2
At Away 1 1 3 27 3 4 2 3




Mallorca latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Oct Sevilla H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Valencia A 2 2 D O Gg
16 Oct Sociedad A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Levante H 1 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Osasuna H 2 3 L O Gg
22 Sep Real Madrid A 1 6 L O Gg
19 Sep Villarreal H 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Ath Bilbao A 0 2 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Cadiz is -0.605 and for the Mallorca is -0.296.
  • The home dynamic for the Cadiz is -0.47 and the dynamic as a guest for the Mallorca is -0.404.
  • The offensive ability for the Cadiz is -0.539 and for the Mallorca is 0.597.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Cadiz is -0.158 and for the Mallorca is -0.621.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Cadiz 20% 35% 21% 25%
Mallorca 31% 42% 18% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cadiz to score 1.06 goals and Mallorca to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.99 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cadiz to score 1.5 goals and Mallorca to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Cadiz to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 16.39 0-1 3.95
1 5.21 2-3 2.05
2 4.07 4+ 3.89
3 4.13 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 5.81 Un 1.5 3.95
5 16.13 Ov 2.5 2
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2
Gg 1.81 Ov 3.5 3.89
NoG 2.24 Un 3.5 1.35


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.34 4.15 3.01
2-3 goals 2.15 3.32 4.28
4+ goals 1.75 4.36 5.04
Ov 1.5 1.99 3.62 4.52
Un 1.5 2.34 4.15 3.01
Ov 2.5 1.61 8.46 3.84
Un 2.5 2.9 2.4 4.19
Ov 3.5 1.75 4.36 5.04
Un 3.5 2.21 3.56 3.74
Goal-Goal 2.36 2.68 4.93
No Goal 1.8 7.31 3.26
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.73 6.86 3.62
NG+Un 2.5 2.05 7.31 2.96



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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