Cambridge Vs AFC Wimbledon

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Cambridge and AFC Wimbledon for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.79 3.4 2.48 2.05 1.8
Estim 2.47 3.51 3.23 2.28 1.78
Value % 4.64 -0.92 -9.36 -4.92 0.62



Basic Data and latest results


Cambridge basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 4 2 22 5 6 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 1 2
At Home 2 4 2 42 7 6 4 4




Cambridge latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Oct Doncaster A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Shrewsbury A 1 4 L O Gg
19 Oct Sheffield Weds H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Ipswich H 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Crewe A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Sep Gillingham H 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Fleetwood Town H 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Portsmouth A 2 1 W O Gg



AFC Wimbledon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 1 2
At Away 3 1 3 48 5 6 5 2




AFC Wimbledon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Wigan H 0 2 L U Ng
19 Oct Lincoln A 1 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Sheffield Weds H 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Burton H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Sep Rotherham A 0 3 L O Ng
25 Sep Shrewsbury A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Plymouth H 0 1 L U Ng
11 Sep Morecambe A 4 3 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Cambridge is -0.386 and for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.296.
  • The home dynamic for the Cambridge is 0.009 and the dynamic as a guest for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.177.
  • The offensive ability for the Cambridge is 0.678 and for the AFC Wimbledon is 0.202.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Cambridge is -1 and for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.559.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Cambridge 23% 40% 23% 13%
AFC Wimbledon 32% 36% 24% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.15 goals and AFC Wimbledon to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.26 goals and AFC Wimbledon to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.33 0-1 3.47
1 4.69 2-3 1.95
2 3.66 4+ 4.98
3 4.18 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 7.3 Un 1.5 3.47
5 19.23 Ov 2.5 2.27
6+ 83.33 Un 2.5 1.78
Gg 1.91 Ov 3.5 4.98
NoG 2.09 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.25 3.84 3.39
2-3 goals 2.61 3.53 2.99
4+ goals 2.51 3.05 3.65
Ov 1.5 2.58 3.38 3.15
Un 1.5 2.25 3.84 3.39
Ov 2.5 2.16 6.67 2.59
Un 2.5 2.8 2.55 3.98
Ov 3.5 2.51 3.05 3.65
Un 3.5 2.47 3.64 3.12
Goal-Goal 3.23 2.48 3.49
No Goal 1.98 6.37 2.97
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.33 5.73 2.52
NG+Un 2.5 2.08 6.37 2.95



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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