Cartagena Vs Ponferradina

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Cartagena and Ponferradina for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.02 3.13 4.02 2.33 1.64
Estim 2.11 3.68 3.94 2.27 1.79
Value % -2.11 -4.77 0.51 1.13 -5.11



Basic Data and latest results


Cartagena basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 6 5 5 1
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Home 4 0 1 80 5 3 3 2




Cartagena latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
22 Oct Eibar A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Oct Sp Gijon H 1 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Amorebieta A 3 2 W O Gg
10 Oct Ibiza H 5 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Las Palmas A 1 4 L O Gg
27 Sep Fuenlabrada A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Lugo H 2 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Oviedo A 0 2 L U Ng



Ponferradina basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 4 2 22 5 5 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 2 1 2
At Away 1 2 2 33 4 4 1 4




Ponferradina latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Oviedo H 1 2 L O Gg
21 Oct Zaragoza A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Fuenlabrada H 0 0 D U Ng
10 Oct Sociedad B A 1 1 D U Gg
01 Oct Valladolid H 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Las Palmas A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Malaga H 4 0 W O Ng
12 Sep Almeria H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Cartagena is 0.035 and for the Ponferradina is -0.333.
  • The home dynamic for the Cartagena is 0.624 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ponferradina is -0.192.
  • The offensive ability for the Cartagena is 1 and for the Ponferradina is 0.597.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Cartagena is -0.474 and for the Ponferradina is -0.586.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Cartagena 23% 35% 26% 17%
Ponferradina 37% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.36 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the home team Cartagena to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.37 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Cartagena to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.05 0-1 3.41
1 4.76 2-3 1.99
2 3.79 4+ 4.98
3 4.18 Ov 1.5 1.42
4 7.35 Un 1.5 3.41
5 19.23 Ov 2.5 2.27
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.8
Gg 2.05 Ov 3.5 4.98
NoG 1.96 Un 3.5 1.26


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.31 3.53 3.53
2-3 goals 2 3.96 4.06
4+ goals 2.14 3.3 4.37
Ov 1.5 2.03 3.74 4.14
Un 1.5 2.31 3.53 3.53
Ov 2.5 1.75 7.21 3.44
Un 2.5 2.51 2.65 4.46
Ov 3.5 2.14 3.3 4.37
Un 3.5 2.1 3.79 3.85
Goal-Goal 2.58 2.6 4.4
No Goal 1.79 6.13 3.58
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.91 5.92 3.25
NG+Un 2.5 1.94 6.13 3.44



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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