Charlton Vs Doncaster

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Charlton and Doncaster for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.8 3.63 4.41 2.05 1.8
Estim 1.93 3.86 4.5 2.16 1.86
Value % -3.74 -1.64 -0.45 -2.48 -1.79



Basic Data and latest results


Charlton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 6 5 5 1
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 2 2 1
At Home 1 2 4 24 5 5 4 3




Charlton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Sunderland A 1 0 W U Ng
19 Oct Accrington H 2 3 L O Gg
16 Oct Lincoln A 1 2 L O Gg
02 Oct Fleetwood Town A 2 1 W O Gg
28 Sep Bolton H 1 4 L O Gg
25 Sep Portsmouth H 2 2 D O Gg
21 Sep Gillingham A 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Wycombe A 1 2 L O Gg



Doncaster basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 6 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Away 0 0 7 0 2 7 3 4




Doncaster latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Oct Cambridge H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Cheltenham H 3 2 W O Gg
19 Oct Gillingham A 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Wycombe H 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Milton Keynes Dons H 2 1 W O Gg
28 Sep Ipswich A 0 6 L O Ng
25 Sep Plymouth A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Morecambe H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Charlton is -0.184 and for the Doncaster is -0.133.
  • The home dynamic for the Charlton is -0.274 and the dynamic as a guest for the Doncaster is -0.857.
  • The offensive ability for the Charlton is 1 and for the Doncaster is -0.09.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Charlton is -0.442 and for the Doncaster is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Charlton 17% 37% 27% 19%
Doncaster 39% 35% 16% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.58 goals and Doncaster to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Charlton to win by 0.75 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.48 goals and Doncaster to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Charlton to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.93 0-1 3.68
1 4.88 2-3 1.96
2 3.77 4+ 4.63
3 4.07 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 6.94 Un 1.5 3.68
5 18.18 Ov 2.5 2.16
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 1.86
Gg 1.99 Ov 3.5 4.63
NoG 2.01 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.88 4.06 4.53
2-3 goals 1.84 3.93 4.91
4+ goals 2.25 3.54 3.66
Ov 1.5 1.95 3.81 4.46
Un 1.5 1.88 4.06 4.53
Ov 2.5 1.74 7.57 3.42
Un 2.5 2.13 2.73 6.1
Ov 3.5 2.25 3.54 3.66
Un 3.5 1.86 3.97 4.77
Goal-Goal 2.61 2.63 4.22
No Goal 1.52 7.42 4.78
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.94 6.1 3.13
NG+Un 2.5 1.62 7.42 4.62



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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