Clermont Vs Marseille

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Clermont and Marseille for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.93 3.66 2.37 1.84 2.06
Estim 2.26 3.62 3.53 2.41 1.71
Value % 10.12 0.3 -13.87 -12.85 9.94



Basic Data and latest results


Clermont basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 5 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Home 2 2 1 53 5 3 2 3




Clermont latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Nantes A 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Lille H 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Lorient A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Monaco H 1 3 L O Gg
22 Sep Rennes A 0 6 L O Ng
19 Sep Brest H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Paris SG A 0 4 L O Ng
29 Aug Metz H 2 2 D O Gg



Marseille basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 3 4 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 2 1 2
At Away 2 2 1 53 3 3 1 4




Marseille latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Oct Nice A 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Paris SG H 0 0 D U Ng
17 Oct Lorient H 4 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Lille A 0 2 L U Ng
26 Sep Lens H 2 3 L O Gg
22 Sep Angers A 0 0 D U Ng
19 Sep Rennes H 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Monaco A 2 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Clermont is -0.386 and for the Marseille is -0.133.
  • The home dynamic for the Clermont is 0.094 and the dynamic as a guest for the Marseille is 0.155.
  • The offensive ability for the Clermont is 0.652 and for the Marseille is -0.116.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Clermont is -0.474 and for the Marseille is -0.233.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Clermont 26% 33% 29% 12%
Marseille 37% 36% 16% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Clermont to score 1.22 goals and Marseille to score 1.43 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Clermont to score 1.26 goals and Marseille to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.1 0-1 3.15
1 4.59 2-3 2.01
2 3.73 4+ 5.35
3 4.37 Ov 1.5 1.46
4 8.06 Un 1.5 3.15
5 20 Ov 2.5 2.4
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.71
Gg 2.16 Ov 3.5 5.35
NoG 1.86 Un 3.5 1.23


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.6 3.2 3.3
2-3 goals 1.93 4.18 4.14
4+ goals 2.97 3.22 2.83
Ov 1.5 2.13 3.86 3.68
Un 1.5 2.6 3.2 3.3
Ov 2.5 1.95 7.17 2.87
Un 2.5 2.54 2.68 4.27
Ov 3.5 2.97 3.22 2.83
Un 3.5 2.14 3.73 3.77
Goal-Goal 2.75 2.61 3.95
No Goal 1.96 5.44 3.27
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.04 5.91 2.93
NG+Un 2.5 2.03 5.44 3.4



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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